Sitemap - 2025 - Macro4Micro
3Q25 GDP: Morning After Variables to Ponder
Durable Goods Oct25: Core Capex Still in Gear
Market Lookback: Last Call for Unusual Behavior
November CPI: Tricky Navigation
Payrolls Nov 25: Into the Weeds
Employment Nov 2025: Bad News is Bad News
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 12-14-25
Market Lookback: FOMC Fragments, Rate Debates Murky 12-13-25
FOMC: Dot Plot Scatters for 2026
Employment Cost Index 3Q25: Slowing but Above CPI
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 12-7-25
Mini Market Lookback: Data Digestion 12-6-25
PCE, Income & Outlays: Calendar Gap Closing
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 11-30-25
Mini Market Lookback: Back into the June 2007 Zone
Durable Goods Sep 2025: Quiet Broadening of Core Capex
Retail Sales September 2025: Foot off the Gas
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 11-23-25
Mini Market Lookback: FOMC Countdown
Payrolls Sep25: Into the Weeds
Employment Sept 2025: In Data We Trust
Credit Markets: Show Me the Data 11-17-25
The Curve: Slopes Can Get Complicated
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 11-16-25
Mini Market Lookback: Tariff Policy Shift Tells an Obvious Story
Retail Gasoline Prices: Biblical Power to Control Global Commodities
Credit Markets: Budget Armistice or GOP Victory Day? 11-12-25
Simplifying the Affordability Question
The Curve: Back to the Future 11-9-25
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 11-9-25
Mini Market Lookback: All that Glitters…
Credit Markets: Little Shop of Worries 11-3-25
The Curve: Macro Data MIA? Policy Prudence KIA?
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 11-2-25
Mini Market Lookback: Not Quite Magnificent Week
Synchrony: Credit Card Bellwether
Credit Markets: Call Me After Trouble Arrives 10-27-25
The Curve: A Slow Pour of Tariffs 10-27-25
Existing Home Sales Sept 2025: Staying in a Tight Range
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 10-26-25
Mini Market Lookback: Absence of Bad News Reigns
CPI September 2025: Headline Up, Core Down
General Motors Update: Same Ride, Smooth Enough
Credit Markets: The Conan the Barbarian Rule 10-20-25
The Curve: My Kingdom for 10 Cuts
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 10-19-25
Mini Market Lookback: Healthy Banks, Mixed Economy, Poor Governance
Credit Markets: Toxic Brew? New or Old Recipe? 10-13-25
The Curve: Macho Man Meets Patient Man 10-12-25
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 10-11-25
Mini Market Lookback: Event Risk Revisited 10-11-25
Credit Profile: General Motors and GM Financial
Credit Markets: The Void Begins 10-6-25
The Curve: Blind Man’s Bluff 10-5-25
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 10-4-25
Mini Market Lookback: Chess? Checkers? Set the game table on fire? 10-4-25
JOLTS Aug 2025: Tough math when “total unemployed > job openings"
Credit Markets: Cone of Silence Ahead? 9-29-25
The Curve: Easing Anxiety at Bat, Tariffs on Deck 9-28-25
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 9-28-25
Mini Market Lookback: Market Compartmentalization, Political Chaos 9-27-25
PCE August 2025: Very Slow Fuse
Durable Goods Aug 2025: Core Demand Stays Steady
2Q25 GDP Final Estimate: Big Upward Revision
New Homes Sales Aug 2025: Surprise Bounce, Revisions Ahead?
Credit Markets: IG Spreads Back in the Clinton Zone 9-22-25
The Curve: FOMC Takes the Slow Road 9-21-25
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 9-21-25
Mini Market Lookback: Easy Street
FOMC: Curve Scenarios Take Wing, Steepen for Now
Home Starts August 2025: Bad News for Starts
Industrial Production Aug 2025: Capacity Utilization
Retail Sales Aug 2025: Resilience with Fraying Edges
Credit Markets: Quality Spread Compression Continues 9-14-25
The Curve: FOMC Balancing Act 9-14-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-14-25
Mini Market Lookback: Ugly Week in America, Mild in Markets
CPI August 2025: Slow Burn or Fleeting Adjustment?
PPI Aug 2025: For my next trick…
Credit Markets: Spread Risk Lurks, but the World Waits
The Curve: The Road to Easing has been Long.
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-6-25
Mini Market Lookback: Job Trends Worst Since COVID
Payrolls Aug 2025: Into the Weeds
Employment August 2025: Payroll Flight
JOLTS July 2025: Job Market Softening, Not Retrenching
Hertz Update: Viable Balance Sheet a Long Way Off
Credit Markets: Will the Heat Matter?
The Curve: Risk Tradeoff - Tariffs vs. UST Supply
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-31-25
Mini Market Lookback: Tariffs Back on Front Burner
PCE July 2025: Prices, Income and Outlays
2Q25 GDP: Second Estimate, Updated Distortion Lines
Avis Update: Peak Travel Season is Here
Durable Goods July 2025: Signs of Underlying Stability
Toll Brothers Update: The Million Dollar Club Rolls On
New Home Sales July 2025: Next Leg of the Fed Relay?
Credit Markets: Dull Week for Spreads 8-25-25
The Curve: Powell’s Relief Pitch 8-24-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-24-25
Mini Market Lookback: The Popeye Powell Effect
Existing Home Sales July 2025: Rays of Hope Brighter on Rates?
Home Starts July 2025: Favorable Growth YoY Driven by South
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 8-18-25
Herc Holdings Update: Playing Catchup
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-17-25
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-16-25
Mini Market Lookback: Rising Inflation, Steady Low Growth?
Retail Sales Jul25: Cautious Optimism in the Aisles
Industrial Production July 2025: Capacity Utilization
Producer Price Index: A Snapshot of the Moving Parts
CPI July 2025: Slow Erosion of Purchasing Power
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 8-11-25
Iron Mountain Update: Records ‘R’ Us
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-10-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-10-25
Mini Market Lookback: Ghosts of Economics Past
Macro Menu: There is More Than “Recession” to Consider
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 8-4-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-3-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-3-25
Mini Market Lookback: Welcome To the New World of Data
Happiness is Doing Your Own Report Card
Payrolls July 2025: Into the Occupation Weeds
Employment July 2025: Negative Revisions Make a Statement
Employment Cost Index 2Q25: Labor in Quiet Mode
PCE June 2025: Prices, Income, and Outlays
2Q25 GDP: Into the Investment Weeds
2Q25 GDP: First Cut of Another Distorted Quarter
United Rentals: Cyclical Bellwether Votes for a Steady Cycle
JOLTS June 2025: Lower Openings and Hires, Higher Layoffs YoY and Flat MoM
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-28-2025
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-27-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-27-25
Mini Market Lookback: Mixed Week Behind, Big Week Coming
Durable Goods June 25: Air Pocket N+1
Taylor Morrison 2Q25: Resilient but Feeling the Same Macro Pressure
New Home Sales June 2025: Mixed Bag
Existing Home Sales June 2025: The Math Still Doesn’t Work
PulteGroup 2Q25: Still-Lofty Margins see a Mild Fade
D.R. Horton 3Q25: Material Slowdown Still Good Enough
Credit Snapshot: Ashtead Group
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-21-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-20-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-20-25
Mini Market Lookback: Macro Muddle, Political Spin
US-Italy Trade: Top 15 Deficit, Smaller Stakes
Housing Starts June 2025: Single Family Slips, Multifamily Bounces
Retail Sales Jun25: Staying Afloat
US-France Trade: Tariff Trigger Points
June 2025 Industrial Production: 2Q25 Growth, June steady
Germany: Class of its own in EU Trade
CPI June 2025: Slow Flowthrough but Starting
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-14-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-13-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-12-25
Mini Market Lookback: Tariffs Run Amok, Part Deux
US-Canada Trade: 35% Tariff Warning
India Tariffs: Changing the Music?
Taiwan: Tariffs and “What is an ally?”
South Korea Tariffs: Just Don’t Hit Back?
Japan: Ally Attack? Risk Free?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-7-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-6-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-6-25
Mini Market Lookback: Bracing for Tariff Impact
US-Vietnam Trade: History has its Moments
Payrolls June 2025: Into the Weeds
Employment June 2025: A State and Local World
Asset Return Quilts for 2H24/1H25
JOLTS May 2025: Job Openings vs. Filling Openings
Midyear Excess Returns: Too little or just not losing?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-30-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-29-2025
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-29-25
Mini Market Lookback: Eye of the Beholder
PCE May 2025: Personal Income and Outlays
Durable Goods May25: Aircraft Surge, Core Orders Modest Positive
1Q25 GDP: Final Estimate, Consumer Fade
New Home Sales May 2025: Slip and Slide
KB Home 2Q25: Negative Industry Trends Keep Coming
Existing Homes Sales May 2025: Sequential Stronger, YoY Weaker
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-23-2025
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-22-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-22-2025
Mini Market Lookback: FOMC Spoke Clearly, Iran and Trump up next 6-21-25
FOMC Day: PCE Outlook Negative, GDP Expectations Grim
Home Starts May 2025: The Fade Continues
Retail Sales May 25: Demand Sugar Crash
May 2025 Industrial Production: Motor Vehicle Cushion?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-16-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-15-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-15-25
Mini Market Lookback: Deus Vult or Deus Nobis Auxilium
Credit Snapshot: Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ)
CPI May 2025: The Slow Tariff Policy Grind
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-9-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-8-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-8-25
Mini Market Lookback: Clash of the Titans 6-7-25
Payrolls May 2025: Into the Weeds
Employment May 2025: We’re Not There Yet
US Trade in Goods April 2025: Imports Be Damned
Past-Prologue Perspective for 2025: Memory Lane 2018
JOLTS April 2025: Slow Burn or Steady State?
Tariffs: Testing Trade Partner Mettle
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-2-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-1-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-1-25
Mini Market Lookback: Out of Tacos, Tariff Man Returns
Credit Snapshot: Meritage Homes (MTH)
PCE April 2025: Personal Income and Outlays
1Q25 GDP 2nd Estimate: Tariff and Courthouse Waiting Game
Homebuilder Rankings: Volumes, Market Caps, ASPs
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 5-27-25
Durable Goods Apr25: Hitting an Air Pocket
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 5-25-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-25-25
Mini Market Lookback: Tariff Excess N+1
New Home Sales April 2025: Waiting Game Does Not Help
Existing Home Sales April 2025: Soft but Steady
Credit Snapshot: Lithia Motors (LAD)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 5-19-25
Home Starts April 2025: Metrics Show Wear and Tear
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 5-18-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-18-25
Mini Market Lookback: Tricky Ingredients, Shifting Moods
Industrial Production April 2025: CapUte Mixed but Time Will Tell
Retail Sales April 25: Shopping Spree Hangover
CPI April 2025: 1st Inning for Tariffs and CPI
Credit Spreads: The Bounce is Back
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 5-12-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 5-11-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-11-25
Mini Market Lookback: When in Doubt, Get Forcefully Ambiguous
US-UK Trade: Small Progress, Big Extrapolation
Credit Snapshot: PulteGroup (PHM)
Tariffs: A Painful Bessent Moment on “Buyer Pays”
Trade: Uphill Battle for Facts and Concepts
Credit Snapshot: Toll Brothers
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 5-5-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 5-4-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-4-25
Mini Market Lookback: Inflated Worry or Slow Train Wreck?
Payrolls April 2025: Into the Weeds
Payroll April 2025: Moods and Time Horizons
Construction: Singing the Blues or Tuning Up for Reshoring?
Employment Cost Index 1Q25: Labor is Not the Main Worry
1Q25 GDP: Into the Investment Weeds
PCE March 2025: Personal Income and Outlays
1Q25 GDP Advance Estimate: Roll Your Own Distortions
JOLTS Mar 2025: No News is Good News
Tariffs: Amazon and Canada Add to the Drama
Credit Snapshot: D.R. Horton (DHI)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 4-28-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 4-27-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-27-25
Mini Market Lookback: Earnings Season Painkiller
Existing Home Sales March 2025: Inventory and Prices Higher, Sales Lower
Durable Goods March 2025: Boeing Masking Some Mixed Results
Equipment Rentals: Pocket of Optimism?
Credit Snapshot: Herc Holdings (HRI)
New Home Sales March 2025: A Good News Sighting?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 4-21-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 4-20-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-20-25
Mini Market Lookback: The Powell Factor
Ships, Fees, Freight & Logistics Pain: More Inflation?
Home Starts Mar 2025: Weak Single Family Numbers
Credit Snapshot: Service Corp International (SCI)
Retail Sales Mar25: Last Hurrah?
Industrial Production Mar 2025: Capacity Utilization, Pregame
Credit Snapshot: Iron Mountain (IRM)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 4-13-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 4-13-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-12-25
Mini Market Lookback: Trade’s Big Bang
Tariffs, Pauses, and Piling On: Helter Skelter
CPI March 2025: Fodder for Spin
Credit Snapshot: Avis Budget Group (CAR)
Tariffs: Some Asian Bystanders Hit in the Crossfire
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 4-6-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 4-6-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-6-25
Mini Market Lookback: A Week for the History Books 4-5-25
Credit Snapshot: AutoNation (AN)
Payrolls Mar 2025: Into the Weeds
Payroll March 2025: Last Call for Good News?
Tariffs: Diminished Capacity…for Trade Volume that is…
Reciprocal Tariff Math: Hocus Pocus
Reciprocal Tariffs: Weird Science Blows up the Lab
Credit Snapshot: Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC)
JOLTS Feb 2025: The Test Starts in 2Q25
Tariffs: Stop Hey What’s That Sound?
Credit Snapshot: United Rentals (URI)
Tariffs are like a Box of Chocolates
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 3-31-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-30-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-30-25
Mini Market Lookback: The Next Trade Battle Fast Approaches
PCE Feb 2025: Inflation, Income, Outlays
Auto Tariffs: Questions to Ponder
Durable Goods February 2025: Preventive Medicine?
New Homes Sales Feb 2025: Consumer Mood Meets Policy Roulette
KB Home 1Q25: The Consumer Theme Piles On
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 3-24-25
Lennar: Cash Flow and Balance Sheet > Gross Margins
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-23-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-23-25
Mini Market Lookback: Fed Gut Check, Tariff Reflux
Existing Homes Sales Feb 2025: Limping into Spring
Fed Action: Very Little Good News for Macro
Industrial Production Feb 2025: Capacity Utilization
Housing Starts Feb 2025: Solid Sequentially, Slightly Soft YoY
Retail Sales Feb 2025: Before the Storm
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 3-17-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-16-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-16-25
Mini Market Lookback: Self-Inflicted Vol
Tariffs: Strange Week, Tactics Not the Point
Credit Spreads: Pain Arrives, Risk Repricing
Trade: Betty Ford Tariff Wing Open for Business
JOLTS Jan 2025: Old News, New Risks in the Market
Auto Suppliers: Trade Groups have a View, Does Washington Even Ask?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 3-10-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-9-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-9-25
Mini Market Lookback: Tariffs Dominate, Geopolitics Agitate
Payrolls Feb 2025: Into the Weeds
Employment Feb 2025: Circling Pattern, Lower Altitude
Trump's “Greatest Economy in History”: Not Even Close
Asset Returns and UST Update: Pain Matters
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 3-3-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-2-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-2-25
Mini Market Lookback: Collision Courses ‘R’ Us
PCE Jan 2025: Prices in Check, Income and Outlays Diverge
Durable Goods Jan25: Waiting Game
GDP 4Q24 Second Estimate: PCE Inflation the Main Event
New Homes Sales Jan 2024: Homebuilders Feeling Cyclical Signals?
Auto Tariffs: Japan, South Korea, and Germany Exposure
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 2-24-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-23-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-23-25
Mini Market Lookback: Tariffs + Geopolitics + Human Nature = Risk
Existing Home Sales Jan 2025: Prices High, Volumes Soft, Inventory Up
AutoNation: Retail Resilient, Captive Finance Growth
Toll Brothers 1Q25: Performing with a Net
Housing Starts Jan 2025: Getting Eerie Out There
Herc Rentals: Swinging a Big Bat
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 2-17-25
UST Yields: Sept 2024 UST in Historical Context
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-16-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-16-25
Mini Market Lookback: Headline Frenzy, Sloppy Details
Iron Mountain 4Q24: Performance Bar Gets Raised
Retail Sales Jan 2025: Warning Sign or Holiday Hangover?
Industrial Production Jan 2025: Capacity Utilization
Reciprocal Tariffs: Weird Science
CPI Jan 2025: Getting Frothy Out There
US-EU Trade: The Final Import/Export Mix 2024
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 2-10-25
Aluminum and Steel Tariffs: The Target is Canada
US-Mexico Trade: Import/Export Mix for 2024
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-9-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-9-25
Mini Market Lookback: Simply Resistible!
Payroll Jan 2025: Into the Occupational Weeds
Payroll Jan 2025: Staying the Course, Supports FOMC Hold
Trade Exposure: US-Canada Import/Export Mix 2024
US Trade with the World: Import and Export Mix
The Trade Picture: Facts to Respect, Topics to Ponder
JOLTS Dec 2024: Before the Tariff JOLT Strikes
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 2-3-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-2-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-2-25
Tariffs: Questions to Ponder, Part 1
United Rentals 4Q24: Strong Numbers Set the Table
Mini Market Lookback: Surreal Week, AI Worries about “A”
Employment Cost Index 4Q24: Labor Crossroad Dead Ahead
PCE: Inflation, Personal Income & Outlays
4Q24 GDP: Into the Investment Weeds
4Q24 GDP: Inventory Liquidation Rules
Credit Crib Note: Lennar Corp (LEN)
D.R. Horton: #1 Homebuilder as a Sector Proxy
Durable Goods Dec 2024: Respectable ex-Transport Numbers
New Home Sales Dec 2024: Decent Finish, Strange Year
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 1-27-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-26-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 1-26-25
Mini Market Lookback: Policy Blitz Formation
Existing Home Sales Dec 2024: Another “Worst Since” Milestone
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 1-20-25
Top 10 Fun Facts on Past Presidents and their Economies
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-19-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 1-19-25
Mini Market Lookback: The Upside of Volatility
Industrial Production Dec 2024: Capacity Utilization
Housing Starts Dec 2024: Good Numbers, Multifamily Ricochet
Retail Sales Dec 2024: A Steady Finish
CPI Dec 2024: Mixed = Relief These Days
KB Home 4Q24: Strong Finish Despite Mortgage Rates
United Rentals: Bigger Meal, Same Recipe
Footnotes & Flashback: Credit Markets 1-13-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-12-25
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 1-12-25
Mini Market Lookback: Sloppy Start
Payroll Dec 2024: Back to Good is Bad?
US-Canada: Tariffs Now More than a Negotiating Tactic
Payroll % Additions: Carter vs. Trump vs. Biden…just for fun
Annual GDP Growth: Jimmy Carter v. Trump v. Biden…just for fun
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-3-25
Mini Market Lookback: Mixed Start, Deep Breaths
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 2024
HY and IG Returns since 1997 Final Score for 2024
Annual and Monthly Asset Return Quilt 2024 Final Score