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Mini Market Lookback: Inflated Worry or Slow Train Wreck?
A busy macro week nears the end of earnings season, but markets are still turning on the qualitative and subjective.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Payrolls April 2025: Into the Weeds
We dig into the occupational lines in a resilient payroll gain not pointing to a downturn even if tariff dislocation concerns are justified.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Payroll April 2025: Moods and Time Horizons
We look across a solid month for payroll numbers with a few major services lines driving results (as usual).
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Construction: Singing the Blues or Tuning Up for Reshoring?
We update construction trends as markets brace for capital budget planning in the “new world.”
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Employment Cost Index 1Q25: Labor is Not the Main Worry
We look across the Employment Cost Index as labor costs fade as a topic for now. Health care benefits flashing red.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA

April 2025

1Q25 GDP: Into the Investment Weeds
We detail the strong contribution of the Fixed Investment lines to 1Q25 GDP. Tech related investments provide cover for some otherwise mixed results.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
PCE March 2025: Personal Income and Outlays
Consumers showed firm spending appetites with steady income to support a habit that will soon feel higher tariffs.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1Q25 GDP Advance Estimate: Roll Your Own Distortions
The 1Q25 GDP numbers have some notable anomalies that work both in favor and against the headline number.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
JOLTS Mar 2025: No News is Good News
The JOLTS report with its 1-month lag from March did not smoke out any signs of panic before “Liberation Day.”
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Tariffs: Amazon and Canada Add to the Drama
The Canadian election and Amazon’s on-now-off tariff transparency plan added some twists in the tariff tension.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Credit Snapshot: D.R. Horton (DHI)
We summarize the credit fundamentals of D.R Horton.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 4-28-25
Credit spreads post another contraction week, making progress back to pre-“Liberation Day” levels.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
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