Archive - Macro4Micro

Market Commentary: Asset Returns 3-23-26

We break out the asset returns with stagflation lurking, FOMC backpedaling, and foreign policy morphing.

Mar 23 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Lookback: Confusion Reigns, Dislocation Pours 3-22-26

Iran War fallout flows into radically reworked FedWatch odds, adverse UST deltas, and FOMC SEP medians that will be ignored.

Mar 22 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

New Homes Sales Jan 2026: The Nays Carry

New home sales news was bad to start off 2026 as the Census data process starts to catch up.

Mar 19 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Producer Price Index Feb 2026: Getting Warmer

PPI rattled the market by coming in high, but the bigger worry is what was low in Feb 2026 but clearly set to go higher.

Mar 18 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Industrial Production Feb 2026: Capacity Utilization

Industrial production and “cap ute” were essentially flat in Durables and Nondurables MoM but mixed by industry.

Mar 17 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Lookback: The Gulf of Cause and Effect 3-15-26

We update rising UST rates and higher spreads that do not mesh well with an energy crisis slamming stocks.

Mar 16 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Commentary: Asset Returns 3-15-26

The weeks can always get stranger in the US-Iran policy dynamics and guiding strategy, but that “strange” bar has been set high.

Mar 15 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

PCE Inflation Jan 2026: Personal Income & Outlays

Headline PCE price inflation ticked lower to 2.8% from 2.9% but higher for core PCE to 3.1% from 3.0%.

Mar 13 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

GDP 4Q25 Second Estimate: Sharp Move Lower

A weak advance estimate for 4Q25 just got weaker on revisions with annual 2025 GDP now at 2.1% vs. 2.8% in 2024.

Mar 13 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Housing Starts Jan 2026: Total Starts Up, Completions Up, Permits Down

Housing starts for Jan 2026 were more mixed than the headline number with single family lower.

Mar 12 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

CPI Feb 2026: It’s Making You Wait…

The stable CPI metrics are still running above target with PCE inflation ahead this week and Iran fallout speculation heating up.

Mar 11 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Existing Home Sales Feb 2026

Existing home sales posted relatively mild volume and price moves with mortgages about to get stubborn again with the oil spike.

Mar 11 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

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