Archive - Macro4Micro

Existing Home Sales Dec 2025: Getting up off the Mat?

The existing home sales numbers end 2025 on a positive note with mortgage rates back around the Sept 2024 lows.

9 hrs ago • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Policy Mud on the Wall: Consumer Debt, Residential Mortgages

We frame the systemic context of consumer debt and mortgages as the White House pitches policies designed to buy some voter love.

Jan 15 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

Retail Sales Nov 2025: Holiday Cheer, Late-Cycle Feel?

November retail sales show decent growth across headline and core as consumers look to finish out the holiday season on a positive note.

Jan 14 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

CPI Dec 2025: Sideways Calms Nerves – For Now

Little change in Dec CPI does not remove the big questions ahead on health care insurance and goods pricing strategies in 2026.

Jan 14 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Payrolls Dec 2025 and FY 2025: Into the Weeds

The December nonfarm payroll continues the theme of cyclical weakening in the labor market with very unfavorable breadth.

Jan 10 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

JOLTS Nov 2025: Job Openings and Hires Down, Layoffs Lower

A major decline in job openings YoY and sequentially came alongside lower MoM hires but lower layoffs/discharges.

Jan 8 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Fascism Does Not Age Well

MAGA best & brightest? Normal democratic discourse or lurking autocracy?

Jan 6 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

2025 Spread Walks and Multicycle Return Histories

We update the 2025 HY and IG spread walks in what was a remarkably measured year for spreads given the stakes.

Jan 5 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

Annual Return Differentials: HY vs. IG Across the Cycles

We look at the running total return vs. excess return differentials for HY vs. IG since 1997.

Jan 3 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

Total Return Quilt Across Asset Classes 2008-2025

We update the asset total return quilt for final 2025 numbers across 16 asset classes and 18 years.

Jan 2 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

Cyclical Histories: Will Facts Be in Vogue in 2026?

We start 2026 with some objective numerical histories to keep in mind ahead of the coming deluge of disinformation and qualitative self-praise.

Jan 2 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

December 2025

3Q25 GDP: Morning After Variables to Ponder

3Q25 was overhyped on headline distortions, but PCE and fixed investment levels are constructive.

Dec 27, 2025 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

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