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Payrolls June 2025: Into the Weeds
The mix of the +147K nonfarm payroll growth raises questions on durability with half coming from government hiring.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Employment June 2025: A State and Local World
A good payroll number passed the cyclical test but flunked the “occupation mix” quiz.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Asset Return Quilts for 2H24/1H25
We assemble monthly return quilts to track the moves across 2H24 into 1H25, and the ride got more volatile into 1H25.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
JOLTS May 2025: Job Openings vs. Filling Openings
A decent JOLTS report does not set the stage for the other half of the dual mandate making life easier for the Fed.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Midyear Excess Returns: Too little or just not losing?
We look at running excess returns for credit layers as tight spreads still mean reliance on a coupon and the UST curve.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA

June 2025

Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-30-25
A big rally week for equities, a modest UST curve shift lower, and tighter credit spreads made for a nice wrap to 1H25.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-29-2025
The market got one of those rare weeks of late where bonds were good performers and stocks great performers.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-29-25
As 1H25 wraps, bonds have been solid performers with a high stakes risk menu ahead of tariff inflation and UST supply anxiety.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Mini Market Lookback: Eye of the Beholder
A banner week for equities saw positive duration effects with mixed PCE data, weak housing, and soft final 1Q25 GDP numbers.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
PCE May 2025: Personal Income and Outlays
The income numbers were noisy and pre-buying effects distorted, but we see some pockets of clarity.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Durable Goods May25: Aircraft Surge, Core Orders Modest Positive
We examine the surge in durable goods orders for May heavily driven by aircraft orders with otherwise mildly positive durables orders.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1Q25 GDP: Final Estimate, Consumer Fade
The final 1Q25 GDP brings a negative consumer story and an unsightly 1Q25 PCE price index ahead of May PCE tomorrow.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
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