Archive - Macro4Micro

New Home Sales Dec 2025: Fresh Game Clock

Census catching up on new home sales for Dec 2025 with slight MoM downtick and modestly higher YoY. Full year 2025 was down slightly.

Feb 21 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

PCE Income & Outlays Dec 2025: Inflation Reversal?

On a day when GDP was a mild disappointment, the PCE inflation story got a little worse.

Feb 20 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

4Q25 GDP (Advance Est.): Less Distortion This Time

In a year of wild distortions from tariff pre-buying and working capital swings, the 4Q25 GDP is back to basics ex-Govt shutdown.

Feb 20 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Industrial Production Jan 2026: Capacity Utilization Trends

A constructive set of industrial production and capacity utilization metrics support a balanced cyclical story.

Feb 20 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

2025 trade Deficits: Reality vs. Rhetoric

The record trade deficit rattles the tariff theme music and encourages importers and suppliers to “check their premises.”

Feb 19 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

Home Starts Dec 2025: Wrapping a Weak 2025

Dec 2025 was weaker YoY in permits and starts, and same for the calendar year. Sequential MoM higher.

Feb 18 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Lookback 2-17-26

We look at the latest move in UST shapeshifting and credit spreads with the 10Y UST knocking on the 4.0% door.

Feb 17 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Commentary: Asset Returns 2-16-26

A mixed week saw divergence in tech performance as the UST curve, CPI, and payroll numbers offered support.

Feb 16 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

CPI Jan 2026: Reassuring Numbers, Missing Pieces

We look at a good headline month for CPI, but there are still a lot of trends to annoy consumers (and voters) when you get in the weeds.

Feb 13 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Existing Home Sales Jan 2026

A bad news release for existing home sales volumes down -8.4% saw all regions lower MoM. YoY median prices increased.

Feb 13 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Payrolls Jan 2026: Into the Weeds

An inflection for private payrolls shows some labor market momentum against revisions that sees 2025 payroll growth materially weaker.

Feb 11 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA and Kevin Chun, CFA

Employment Jan 2026: Good Headline, So-So Mix

Employed count higher and unemployed count lower sent unemployment rate ticking down MoM to 4.3% from 4.4% (4.0% in Jan 2025).

Feb 11 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

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