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JOLTS Nov 2025: Job Openings and Hires Down, Layoffs Lower
A major decline in job openings YoY and sequentially came alongside lower MoM hires but lower layoffs/discharges.
Jan 8
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Fascism Does Not Age Well
MAGA best & brightest? Normal democratic discourse or lurking autocracy?
Jan 6
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
2025 Spread Walks and Multicycle Return Histories
We update the 2025 HY and IG spread walks in what was a remarkably measured year for spreads given the stakes.
Jan 5
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
and
Kevin Chun, CFA
Annual Return Differentials: HY vs. IG Across the Cycles
We look at the running total return vs. excess return differentials for HY vs. IG since 1997.
Jan 3
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
and
Kevin Chun, CFA
1
Total Return Quilt Across Asset Classes 2008-2025
We update the asset total return quilt for final 2025 numbers across 16 asset classes and 18 years.
Jan 2
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
and
Kevin Chun, CFA
1
Cyclical Histories: Will Facts Be in Vogue in 2026?
We start 2026 with some objective numerical histories to keep in mind ahead of the coming deluge of disinformation and qualitative self-praise.
Jan 2
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
December 2025
3Q25 GDP: Morning After Variables to Ponder
3Q25 was overhyped on headline distortions, but PCE and fixed investment levels are constructive.
Dec 27, 2025
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
Durable Goods Oct25: Core Capex Still in Gear
We look under an ugly headline Durable Goods number that shows core activity in slow-burn mode heading into year end.
Dec 23, 2025
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
and
Kevin Chun, CFA
1
Market Lookback: Last Call for Unusual Behavior
The last full trading week signals a banner year for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ but still falls short of the 2024 and 2023 total return performance.
Dec 22, 2025
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Existing Home Sales Nov 2025
The uptick in existing sales volumes for a third straight month is a decent way to end a rough year for housing.
Dec 22, 2025
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
November CPI: Tricky Navigation
Some relief for the stagflation story with the “-flation” part easing this month and edging closer to target range.
Dec 18, 2025
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Payrolls Nov 25: Into the Weeds
Weak employment showing fewer pockets of strength with health care payroll the main source of support.
Dec 16, 2025
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
and
Kevin Chun, CFA
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