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Retail Sales September 2025: Foot off the Gas
September retail sales inched higher but with signs of deceleration as core moved lower and consumer sentiment is not exactly reading holiday joy.
5 hrs ago
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
The Curve: Flying Blind?
Holiday week disruptions and the lack of major data inputs before the Dec 9-10 FOMC meeting keep the odds of a cut in a wide range.
Nov 25
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 11-23-25
The asset return scoresheet had a bad week with more lines in the red for 1-month returns than we have seen for some time.
Nov 24
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
Mini Market Lookback: FOMC Countdown
The economic data game clock restarted with payroll numbers that became a Rorschach Test for both UST curve bulls and bears.
Nov 23
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
Payrolls Sep25: Into the Weeds
We dig into the delayed September occupation lines. Healthcare and Leisure continue the heavy lifting, but mix remains a challenge.
Nov 21
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Employment Sept 2025: In Data We Trust
A good headline number for Sept payroll but one that is less impressive in occupational mix.
Nov 20
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
1
Credit Markets: Show Me the Data 11-17-25
A modest compression week for HY spreads leads into what we hope will be data wave on the way into an important FOMC meeting Dec 9-10.
Nov 18
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
The Curve: Slopes Can Get Complicated
The FOMC and markets need more signs and data input with the odds of easing plunging.
Nov 17
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
1
Market Commentary: Asset Returns 11-16-25
Asset returns went through another tough week with debt hit by the UST curve and equities overwhelmingly in the red zone.
Nov 16
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
1
Mini Market Lookback: Tariff Policy Shift Tells an Obvious Story
A notable – but unstated – admission came from Team Trump that the buyer pays the tariffs with a wave of exemptions.
Nov 15
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
1
Retail Gasoline Prices: Biblical Power to Control Global Commodities
We look at national averages retail prices for regular gasoline. Numbers and facts matter.
Nov 14
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Credit Markets: Budget Armistice or GOP Victory Day? 11-12-25
A week of political gymnastics were set against numbers-free affordability debates. At least the data will restart soon.
Nov 12
•
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
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