Archive - Macro4Micro

The US as an Aspiring Emerging Market: Fiscal SNAFU, Political FUBAR

The latest attempt to use Executive Orders as Trump’s personal constitutional amendments is a dangerous trend.

Apr 6 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Employment Situation March 2026

March payroll adds exceeded the post-Jan 2009 monthly median for the first time since Dec 2024.

Apr 4 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Payroll Focus: ADP Highlights March 2026

The ADP numbers has become more important lately with its private sector focus and useful breakouts for small businesses.

Apr 1 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

March 2026

JOLTS Feb 2026: Openings Down, Hires Down, Layoffs Up

We await more current March payroll info this week, but Feb JOLTS offers little room for optimism with declines.

Mar 31 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Commentary: Asset Returns 3-30-26

With another escalation countdown underway, the stakes get higher, the performance worse, and credibility strained.

Mar 30 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

UST Deltas: Elevation Realities

We look at UST deltas, mortgage setbacks, the swing in duration risk, and daunting Iran scenarios risks ahead.

Mar 29 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Commentary: Asset Returns 3-23-26

We break out the asset returns with stagflation lurking, FOMC backpedaling, and foreign policy morphing.

Mar 23 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Lookback: Confusion Reigns, Dislocation Pours 3-22-26

Iran War fallout flows into radically reworked FedWatch odds, adverse UST deltas, and FOMC SEP medians that will be ignored.

Mar 22 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

New Homes Sales Jan 2026: The Nays Carry

New home sales news was bad to start off 2026 as the Census data process starts to catch up.

Mar 19 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Producer Price Index Feb 2026: Getting Warmer

PPI rattled the market by coming in high, but the bigger worry is what was low in Feb 2026 but clearly set to go higher.

Mar 18 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Industrial Production Feb 2026: Capacity Utilization

Industrial production and “cap ute” were essentially flat in Durables and Nondurables MoM but mixed by industry.

Mar 17 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

Market Lookback: The Gulf of Cause and Effect 3-15-26

We update rising UST rates and higher spreads that do not mesh well with an energy crisis slamming stocks.

Mar 16 • Glenn Reynolds, CFA

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