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Mini Market Lookback: FOMC Spoke Clearly, Iran and Trump up next 6-21-25
Fed funds did not surprise but FOMC forecasts were unkind. The focus is back on “What’s next for the US in the Middle East and when?”
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Lennar 2Q25: Bellwether Blues
Lennar 2Q25 was part of a broader sell-off in homebuilder equities with the glum tone of the earnings call saying more than the numbers.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
FOMC Day: PCE Outlook Negative, GDP Expectations Grim
The FOMC frames a negative outlook for inflation and GDP growth with sub-2% GDP growth for next 3 years.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Home Starts May 2025: The Fade Continues
Housing starts decline again MoM and YoY but sequential numbers for single family were flat.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Retail Sales May 25: Demand Sugar Crash
We look at the negative May Retail Sales data as we start to see signs of a slowdown after a tariff fueled spending spree.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
May 2025 Industrial Production: Motor Vehicle Cushion?
Industrial production ticked lower while manufacturing capacity utilization was flat on a rebound in Motor Vehicles/Parts and Aerospace.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-16-25
Credit markets remained resilient last week even as the domestic and geopolitical risk landscape raised the stakes.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-15-25
The UST curve has a big week ahead with an FOMC meeting, the busy tariff pipeline and now the Mideast oil price scenarios.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-15-25
A mixed week for equities and favorable UST moves by bonds seemed mild in the face of the geopolitical backdrop.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Mini Market Lookback: Deus Vult or Deus Nobis Auxilium
An extraordinary week for the country and the world brought a muted response for the trailing 1-week.
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Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Credit Snapshot: Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ)
We summarize the credit fundamentals of Hertz.
 • 
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
CPI May 2025: The Slow Tariff Policy Grind
CPI relief still faces a daunting backlog of pauses, court cases, high volume Section 232 targets, and working capital cycles.
 • 
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
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