Spread Walk 2024 Final Score
We provide a final 2024 update to the monthly HY and IG spread walks that show spread compression still at levels last seen in prior credit cycle peaks.
We follow up our full analysis of the spread walks below with a chart update for the last few days to timestamp the 12-31-24 date.
Widening for HY in Dec got some more distance from the +260 bps spread low in Nov and ends the year at +292 bps. This still leaves the balance of risk skewed to widening for 2025 as the bar is high for compression next year.
IG finished the year in Dec with a -1 bps move with 2024 characterized by relatively low spread volatility and no months crossing into double-digit deltas.
See also:
HY and IG Returns since 1997 Final Score for 2024 1-2-24
Annual and Monthly Asset Return Quilt 2024 Final Score 1-2-24
Credit Returns: 2024 Monthly Return Quilt Final Score 1-2-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns for 2024 1-2-24
HY and IG Returns since 1997: Four Bubbles and Too Many Funerals 12-31-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-29-24
Mini Market Lookback: Last American Hero? Who wins? 12-29-24
Spread Walk: Pace vs. Direction 12-28-24
Annual and Monthly Asset Return Quilt 12-27-24
Credit Returns: 2024 Monthly Return Quilt 12-26-24
New Home Sales: Thanksgiving Delivered, What About Christmas? 12-23-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 12-23-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-22-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-22-24
Mini Market Lookback: Wild Finish to the Trading Year 12-21-24
Trump Tariffs 2025: Hey EU, Guess What? 12-20-24
PCE, Income & Outlays Nov 2024: No Surprise, Little Relief 12-20-24
Existing Home Sales Nov 2024: Mortgage Vice Tightens Again 12-19-24
GDP 3Q24: Final Number at +3.1% 12-19-24
Fed Day: Now That’s a Knife 12-18-24
Credit Crib Note: Iron Mountain 12-18-24
Housing Starts Nov 2024: YoY Fade in Single Family, Solid Sequentially 12-18-24
Industrial Production: Nov 2024 Capacity Utilization 12-17-24
Retail Sales Nov24: Gift of No Surprises 12-17-24
Inflation: The Grocery Price Thing vs. Energy 12-16-24
Toll Brothers: Rich Get Richer 12-12-24
CPI Nov 2024: Steady, Not Helpful 12-11-24
Mini Market Lookback: Decoupling at Bat, Entropy on Deck? 12-7-24
Credit Crib Note: Herc Rentals (HRI) 12-6-24
Payroll Nov 2024: So Much for the Depression 12-6-24
Trade: Oct 2024 Flows, Tariff Countdown 12-5-24
JOLTS Oct 2024: Strong Starting Point for New Team in Job Openings 12-3-24
Mini Market Lookback: Tariff Wishbones, Policy Turduckens 11-30-24
3Q24 GDP Second Estimate: PCE Trim, GPDI Bump 11-27-24
New Home Sales Oct 2024: Weather Fates, Whither Rates 11-26-24
Mexico: Tariffs as the Economic Alamo 11-26-24
Tariff: Target Updates – Canada 11-26-24
Mini Market Lookback: Market Delinks from Appointment Chaos… For Now 11-23-24
Credit Crib Note: Ashtead Group 11-21-24
Mini Market Lookback: Reality Checks 11-16-24
Credit Crib Note: United Rentals (URI) 11-14-24
Mini Market Lookback: Extrapolation Time? 11-9-24
The Inflation Explanation: The Easiest Answer 11-8-24
Fixed Investment in 3Q24: Into the Weeds 11-7-24
Select Histories:
Mexico: Tariffs as the Economic Alamo 11-26-24
Tariff: Target Updates – Canada 11-26-24
Tariffs: The EU Meets the New World…Again…Maybe 10-29-24
Trump, Trade, and Tariffs: Northern Exposure, Canada Risk 10-25-24
Trump at Economic Club of Chicago: Thoughts on Autos 10-17-24
HY OAS Lows Memory Lane: 2024, 2007, and 1997 10-8-24
Credit Returns: Sept YTD and Rolling Months 10-1-24
HY Industry Mix: Damage Report 8-7-24
Volatility and the VIX Vapors: A Lookback from 1997 8-6-24
HY Pain: A 2018 Lookback to Ponder 8-3-24
Presidential GDP Dance Off: Clinton vs. Trump 7-27-24
Presidential GDP Dance Off: Reagan vs. Trump 7-27-24
The B vs. CCC Battle: Tough Neighborhood, Rough Players 7-7-24
HY Spreads: Celebrating Tumultuous Times at a Credit Peak 6-13-24
Credit Markets Across the Decades 4-8-24
Credit Cycles: Historical Lightning Round 4-8-24
Histories: Asset Return Journey from 2016 to 2023 1-21-24
Credit Performance: Excess Return Differentials in 2023 1-1-24
Return Quilts: Resilience from the Bottom Up 12-30-23
HY vs. IG Excess and Total Returns Across Cycles: The UST Kicker 12-11-23
HY Multicycle Spreads, Excess Returns, Total Returns 12-5-23
US Debt % GDP: Raiders of the Lost Treasury 5-29-23
Wild Transition Year: The Chaos of 2007 11-1-22
Greenspan’s Last Hurrah: His Wild Finish Before the Crisis 10-30-22