Payroll % Additions: Carter vs. Trump vs. Biden…just for fun
We compare annual job additions across the Carter, Trump and Biden administrations.
Why count when you can emote?
We often look back across the cycles to separate fact from fiction, and with Jimmy Carter on his last tour, we look back at his term and frame more of his performance numbers vs. Trump and Biden.
We thought Carter earned the right to some facts for a life well lived and notably given how he has been berated and ridiculed by Trump over the years.
We started with GDP Growth in a recent commentary (see Annual GDP Growth: Jimmy Carter v. Trump v. Biden…just for fun 1-6-25), and now we turn to payroll additions by year. Carter’s payroll numbers crushed Trump by this metric and beat Biden. That may seem intuitive when inflation is in part a function of high demand.
The chart details payroll additions each year for the three administrations using the same format that we used for GDP. The numbers are revealing and push back on the “greatest economy in the history of the world” mantra with Trump’s job additions and GDP growth lagging Carter every year...by a meaningful amount. Trump’s numbers also lagged Biden every year.
Every cycle keeps a close eye on GDP and jobs growth. This latest post-COVID cycle was a throwback to earlier times when inflation was the main worry (see PCE, Income & Outlays Nov 2024: No Surprise, Little Relief 12-20-24, CPI Nov 2024: Steady, Not Helpful 12-11-24), but every cycle has a lot going on with GDP growth being the most comprehensive metric.
Comparing Trump numbers to the two worst inflation periods (Carter, Biden) since the Nixon/Ford years tells a more complex story of what Trump did not get done. Trump definitely wins on inflation. The booming economies of Clinton and Reagan as very successful two-term Presidents were so much stronger they did not make for an interesting comparison.
The story in the above chart is a simple one. How many jobs did each President add each year as a % of beginning payroll for that year. We already covered GDP growth for these periods with the overriding importance of the GDP lines to all aspects of the economy. This chart shows jobs. That is, it shows the number of bodies getting the paychecks that drive the PCE lines. That PCE trend in turn influences the fixed investments made by companies to meet the demands of an expanding economy. Such job counts also dictate the tax base at the federal, state, and local level and how those public sector entities consume, invest, and hire.
Each period has a distinct set of variables, macro factors and micro dynamics across industry trends – whether cyclical or secular – and in terms of global or regional drivers whether OPEC (1979 Iran oil crisis), monetary regimes (Volcker arrives in Aug 1979), supply and demand shocks (COVID in 2020), regulatory shifts (waves of deregulation starting in late 1970s), or currency trends (import/export competitiveness etc.)
That said, the “numbers are the numbers.” It is reasonable to explain them, drill into them, and even cite many as not the main event. But you cannot pretend they do not exist. Ignoring the numbers is getting to be a practice in the Washington crowd that sees less upside in using facts. Sad but true.
These numbers tell a simple story. Carter and Biden economies posted payroll additions that dwarfed the Trump years. That is a numerical fact. Everything else is just marketing and spin.
Glenn Reynolds, CFA
Kevin Chun, CFA