Housing Starts June 2025: Single Family Slips, Multifamily Bounces

The total starts headline was better than the details with single family -4.6% sequentially and -10.0% YoY as the critical South faded.

Jul 18, 2025

Wood won’t be cheap for multifamily with Section 232 tariffs ahead.

The overall flavor for single family starts is negative ahead of the upcoming earnings season reports and guidance while multifamily has been solid through 1H25. Mortgage rates have been stubborn and undermined homebuilders and existing home sales transaction volumes, which get reported next week.
Total housing units started rose +4.6% from May and -0.5% YoY but with single family at -4.6% MoM and -10.1% as the two largest regions were negative for MoM and YoY.
On a not seasonally adjusted basis (closer to what is actually happening in the trenches), the single family starts stood at -6.9% YTD vs. -1.0% YTD for total starts.
The South at 55% of single family starts and West at 22% set the trend with the South -5.1% from May (-18.5% YoY) and West -6.3% from May (-3.0% YoY) combining for 77% of single family starts nationally.
Multifamily had one of its occasional big moves at +30.6% from May and +25.8% YoY. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the YTD multifamily starts are at +15.7%.

The above chart frames the current 883K for single family starts across the cycle. The June starts tally was down by -4.6% MoM and -10.0% YoY. Separately, total starts overall were +4.6% MoM with Multifamily at +30.6% MoM after a big decrease sequentially in May. Multifamily starts were up by +25.8% YoY with its usual volatile lumpy pattern.

The South region at 55% of single family starts (SAAR) was -5.1% MoM and -18.5% YoY while the West as the #2 region was -6.3% MoM and -3.0% YoY. The Midwest was -1.4% MoM for single family and +18.8% YoY. The Northeast market was -2.9% from May and -5.7% YoY.

The YoY declines reflect the weakness in orders and soft guidance across many (not all) builders from 1Q25 earnings. We will see a fresh round of earnings reports and guidance in the coming weeks with industry leader (by units) D.R. Horton (DHI) reporting next week. DHI is always interesting given its national scale, low average sales prices in industry context, and the breadth of its operations in development and recent history building rental units. We will see a slew of other homebuilder earnings reports next week with Pulte, Taylor Morrison and Meritage among the leaders.

The above chart plots total permits and total starts on a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, and we see NSA total permits slightly higher in June (+3.4%) but single family permits down by -4.8% for June. NSA Year-to-Date permits were -3.2% for total permits and a decline of -5.5% for single family permits in June. NSA is viewed as closer to what is going on in the trenches without the SAAR model assumptions.

For total starts and single family starts on an NSA basis, we see total starts higher (+6.3%) MoM and single family slightly lower (-0.2%). The YTD NSA starts is -1.0% for total and -6.9% for single family.

The above plots the single family starts by region on an NSA basis. The two largest regions (South and West) saw the South slightly higher and the West slightly lower in the NSA numbers. The Midwest moved slightly lower, and the small Northeast market slightly higher.

The above chart updates running multifamily starts. At +414K (SAAR), June 2025 soared by 30.6% sequentially and +25.8% YoY. The 414K is impressively above the long-term median of 337K, above the median from Jan 2009 to current (347K), and above the median from 2000 to 2008 (296K). The 1960s was a boom period for multifamily with the postwar explosion of urbanization and high racial migration from the south to the north. On an NSA basis (not shown), the YTD multifamily starts is +15.7%.

The above chart updates Multifamily permits (SAAR). The 478K is up by +8.1% MoM for June and up by +2.1% for June YoY. The YTD change on an NSA basis for permits (not shown) is +1.0%.

Housing sector:

New Home Sales May 2025: Slip and Slide 6-25-25

Existing Homes Sales May 2025: Sequential Stronger, YoY Weaker 6-23-25

Home Starts May 2025: The Fade Continues 6-18-25

New Home Sales April 2025: Waiting Game Does Not Help 5-23-25

Homebuilders:

KB Home 2Q25: Negative Industry Trends Keep Coming 6-25-25

Lennar 2Q25: Bellwether Blues 6-20-25

Credit Snapshot: Meritage Homes (MTH) 5-30-25

Homebuilder Rankings: Volumes, Market Caps, ASPs 5-28-25

Credit Snapshot: PulteGroup (PHM) 5-7-25

Credit Snapshot: Toll Brothers 5-5-25