Sitemap - 2024 - Macro4Micro
HY and IG Returns since 1997: Four Bubbles and Too Many Funerals
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-29-24
Mini Market Lookback: Last American Hero? Who wins?
Spread Walk: Pace vs. Direction
Annual and Monthly Asset Return Quilt
Credit Returns: 2024 Monthly Return Quilt
New Home Sales: Thanksgiving Delivered, What About Christmas?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 12-23-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-22-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-22-24
Mini Market Lookback: Wild Finish to the Trading Year
Trump Tariffs 2025: Hey EU, Guess What?
PCE, Income & Outlays Nov 2024: No Surprise, Little Relief
Existing Home Sales Nov 2024: Mortgage Vice Tightens Again
GDP 3Q24: Final Number at +3.1%
Housing Starts Nov 2024: YoY Fade in Single Family, Solid Sequentially
Credit Crib Note: Iron Mountain (IRM)
Retail Sales Nov24: Gift of No Surprises
Industrial Production: Nov 2024 Capacity Utilization
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 12-16-24
Inflation: The Grocery Price Thing vs. Energy
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-15-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-15-24
Mini Market Lookback: Macro Grab Bag 12-14-24
Toll Brothers: Rich Get Richer
CPI Nov 2024: Steady, Not Helpful
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 12-9-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-8-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-8-24
Mini Market Lookback: Decoupling at Bat, Entropy on Deck?
Credit Crib Note: Herc Rentals (HRI)
Payroll Nov 2024: So Much for the Depression
Trade: Oct 2024 Flows, Tariff Countdown
JOLTS Oct 2024: Strong Starting Point for New Team in Job Openings
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 12-2-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-1-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-1-24
Mini Market Lookback: Tariff Wishbones, Policy Turduckens
PCE Inflation Oct 2024: Personal Income & Outlays
3Q24 GDP Second Estimate: PCE Trim, GPDI Bump
New Home Sales Oct 2024: Weather Fates, Whither Rates
Mexico: Tariffs as the Economic Alamo
Tariff: Target Updates – Canada
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 11-25-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-24-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-24-24
Mini Market Lookback: Market Delinks from Appointment Chaos… For Now
Existing Home Sales Oct 2024: Limited Broker Relief
Credit Crib Note: Ashtead Group plc (AHT)
Housing Starts Oct 2024: Economics Rule
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 11-18-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-18-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-17-24
Mini Market Lookback: Reality Checks 11-16-24
Industrial Production: Capacity Utilization Circling Lower
Retail Sales Oct 2024: Durable Consumers
Credit Crib Note: United Rentals (URI)
CPI Oct 2024: Calm Before the Confusion
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 11-12-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-11-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-10-24
Mini Market Lookback: Extrapolation Time?
The Inflation Explanation: The Easiest Answer
Fixed Investment in 3Q24: Into the Weeds
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 11-4-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-3-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-3-24
Mini Market Lookback: Showtime 11-3-24
Payroll Oct 2024: Noise vs. Notes
All the Presidents’ Stocks: Beware Jedi Mind Tricks
PCE Inflation Sept 2024: Personal Income and Outlays
Employment Cost Index Sept 2024: Positive Trend
3Q24 GDP Update: Bell Lap Is Here
The Politics of Objective GDP Numbers: “Flex Facts” on Growth
JOLTS Sept 2024: Solid but Lower, Signals for Payroll Day?
Tariffs: The EU Meets the New World…Again…Maybe
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 10-28-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-27-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-27-24
Mini Market Lookback: Burners on Full 10-27-24
New Home Sales: All About the Rates
Durable Goods Sept 2024: Taking a Breather
Trump, Trade, and Tariffs: Northern Exposure, Canada Risk
Existing Home Sales Sept 2024: Weakening Volumes, Rate Trends Worse
PulteGroup 3Q24: Pushing through Rate Challenges
State Unemployment Rates: Reality Update
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 10-21-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-21-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-20-24
Mini Market Lookback: Banks Deliver, Equities Feel the Joy
Housing Starts Sept 2024: Long Game Meets Long Rates
Trump at Economic Club of Chicago: Thoughts on Autos
Retail Sales Sep 2024: Taking the Helm on PCE?
Industrial Production: Capacity Utilization Soft, Comparability Impaired
Footnotes & Flashback: Credit Markets 10-14-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-13-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-12-24
CPI Sept 2024: Warm Blooded, Not Hot
HY OAS Lows Memory Lane: 2024, 2007, and 1997
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 10-7-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-6-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-6-24
Mini Market Lookback: Cracking the 300 Line in HY
Payroll Sept 2024: Rushing the Gate
CarMax: Why Do We Watch KMX as a Bellwether?
Credit Returns: Sept YTD and Rolling Months
JOLTS Aug 2024: Openings Up, Hires Down, Layoffs Down, Quits Rate Down
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 9-30-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-29-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 9-29-24
Mini Market Lookback: PCE Tailwinds, GDP Holds Serve
State Level Economic Reality Check: Employment, GDP, Personal Income
PCE Prices Aug 2024: Personal Income & Outlays
KB Home: Steady Growth, Slower Motion
Durable Goods Aug 2024: Waiting Game
2Q24 GDP: Final Estimate and Revision Deltas
New Home Sales Aug 2024: Waiting Game on Mortgages or Supply?
Lennar: Bulletproof Credit Despite Margin Squeeze
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 9-23-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 9-22-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-22-24
Mini Market Lookback: FOMC Week
Credit Crib Note: Service Corp International (SCI)
Existing Homes Sales Aug 2024: Mortgages Still Rule
FOMC Action: Preemptive Strike for Payroll?
Home Starts Aug 2024: Mortgage Rates to Kickstart Hopes Ahead?
Retail Sales: Down to the Wire?
Industrial Production: Aug 2024 Capacity Utilization
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 9-16-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 9-15-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-15-24
A Strange Policy Risk Week: Mini Market Lookback
Consumer Sentiment: Inflation Optimism? Split Moods
CPI Aug 2024: Steady Trend Supports Mandate Shift
Facts Matter: China Syndrome on Trade
Tariffs: Questions that Won’t Get Asked by Debate Moderators
Policy Risks: Ahead of the Debate
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 9-9-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 9-7-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-7-24
Another Volatile Week: Mini Market Lookback
August 2024 Payrolls: Slow Burn, Negative Revisions
Trump's New Sovereign Wealth Fund: Tariff Dollars for a Funded Pool of Patronage?
Goods and Manufacturing: Fact Checking Job Rhetoric
JOLTS July 2024: Mixed Bag, Hires Up, Layoffs/Discharges Up, Quits Flat
Credit Crib Note: Lithia Motors (LAD)
Construction Spending: A Brief Pause?
Labor Day Weekend: Mini Market Lookback
PCE July 2024: Inflation, Income and Outlays
2Q24 GDP 2nd Estimate: The Power of 3 and Cutting
Harris Housing Plan: The South’s Gonna Do It Again!?
Durable Goods Jul24: Transport U-turn
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 8-26-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-25-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-25-24
New Home Sales July 2024: To Get by with a Little Help from My Feds?
Existing Home Sales July 2024: Making a Move?
Payroll: A Little Context Music
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 8-19-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-17-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-17-22
Housing Starts July 2024: The Working Capital “Prevent Defense”
Industrial Production: Capacity Utilization Trends
CPI July 2024: The Fall Campaign Begins?
Total Return Quilt: Annual Lookback to 2008
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 8-12-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-11-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-11-24
Credit Crib Note: PulteGroup (PHM)
Credit Crib Note: D.R. Horton (DHI)
HY Industry Mix: Damage Report
Volatility and the VIX Vapors: A Lookback from 1997
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 8-5-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-4-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-4-24
HY Pain: A 2018 Lookback to Ponder
Payroll July 2024: Ready, Set, Don’t Panic 8-2-24
The Employment Cost Index June 2024
JOLTS June 2024: Countdown to FOMC, Ticking Clock to Mass Deportation?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-29-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-28-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-28-24
Presidential GDP Dance Off: Clinton vs. Trump
Presidential GDP Dance Off: Reagan vs. Trump
PCE June 2024: Inflation, Income, and Outlays
2Q24 GDP: Into the Investment Weeds
GDP 2Q24: Banking a Strong Quarter for Election Season
New Homes Sales June 2024: Half Time? Waiting for Mortgage Trends
Existing Homes Sales June 2024: Supply Up, Prices Up, Volume Down
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-22-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-21-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-20-24
Industrial Production June 2024: Is the Sector Rotation Alive?
Housing Starts June 2024: Still All About the Deliveries
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-15-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-14-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-13-24
Consumer Sentiment: Still Feeling the Heat
Homebuilder Equities: “Morning After” on Rate Optimism
Homebuilders: Updating Equity Performance and Size Rankings
CPI June 2024: Good News is Good News
Credit Crib Note: KB Home (KBH)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-8-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-7-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-7-24
The B vs. CCC Battle: Tough Neighborhood, Rough Players
Payroll June 2024: The Race Gets Confusing
JOLTS May 2024: The Jobs Oasis Still Has Water
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 7-1-24
Mein Zupreme Kourt: Official Acts in the Eyes of the Beholder
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-30-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-30-24
State Unemployment: A Sum-of-the-Parts BS Detector
The Debate: The China Deficits and Who Pays the Tariff?
PCE, Income and Outlays: Practicing Safe Growth?
Durable Goods: Playing Defense
1Q24 GDP: Final Cut, Moving Parts
New Home Sales: Pumping the Brakes?
CarMax F1Q25: Ringside Update on the Used Car Market
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Credit Markets 6-23-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-23-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-23-24
Existing Homes Sales May 2024: Weary Climb
Housing Starts May 2024: Starts vs. Deliveries Balancing Act
Lennar: Key Metrics Still Tell a Positive Macro Story
Industrial Production May 2024: Capacity Utilization
Retail Sales: Consumer Fabric Softening?
Credit Crib Note: AutoNation (AN)
Auto Sector Equity Performance Update: The Dealers
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-16-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns
Consumer Sentiment: Summer Blues or Election Vibecession?
Income Taxes for Tariffs: Dollars to Donuts
HY Spreads: The BB vs. BBB Spread Compression
HY Spreads: Celebrating Tumultuous Times at a Credit Peak
May 2024 CPI: I Feel Good, Not Sure That I Should
Trade Flows: More Clarity Needed to Handicap Major Trade Risks
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-9-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-9-24
Payroll May 2024: The Wave Continues
JOLTS April 2024: Shorter Line but not Short
Construction Spending: Stalling Sequentially at High Run Rates
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-2-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-2-24
PCE, Income and Outlays: Lower Income and Consumption, Sideways Inflation
1Q24 GDP: Second Estimate, Moving Parts
Credit Crib Note: NVR, Inc. (NVR)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 5-27-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-27-24
Memorial Day: Ponderings for Donny the Dodger
Durable Goods: Staying the Cyclical Course
New Home Sales April 2024: Spring Not Springing Enough
Toll Brothers: A Rising Tide Lifts Big Boats
Existing Homes Sales April 2024: Pay More, Get Less, but More Available
Credit Crib Note: Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-19-24
Footnotes & Flashback: State of Yields 5-19-24
Industrial Production April 2024: Another Softer Spot
Housing Starts April 2024: Recovery Run Rates Roll On
Retail Sales Apr 2024: Get By With a Little Help
CPI April 2024: Salve Without Salvation
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-12-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 5-12-24
Consumer Sentiment: Flesh Wound?
Credit Crib Note: Avis Budget Group (CAR)
Carvana: Counterattacking in Style
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 5-5-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 5-5-24
April Payroll: Occupational Breakdown
Payroll April 2024: Market Dons the Rally Hat
Avis: Gearing Up for a Transition Year in Fleet Costs
JOLTS March 2024: Slower Lane, Not a Breakdown
Employment Cost Index March 2024: Sticky is as Sticky Does
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 4-28-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-28-24
United Rentals: Finetuning Strong Run Rates on Equipment Demand
PCE, Income and Outlays: The Challenge of Constructive
1Q24 GDP: Looking into the Investment Layers
PulteGroup: Strong Volumes, Stable Pricing
Durable Goods: Back to Business as Usual?
New Home Sales March 2024: Seasonal Tides Favorable
Systemic Corporate and Consumer Debt Metrics: Z.1 Update
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 4-21-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-21-24
D.R. Horton: Ramping Up in 2024 Despite Mortgages
Existing Home Sales March 2024: Not Something Old, Something New
Housing Starts March 2024: The Slow Roll and Ratchet
Industrial Production: A Healthy Sideways
CarMax FY 2024: Secular Neutral? Or Cyclical Gear Shift?
Retail Sales March 2024: Until You Drop
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 4-14-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-14-24
Consumer Sentiment: Do You Think Scary Thoughts?
CPI March 2024: The Steeplechase Effect
Credit Cycles: Historical Lightning Round
Credit Markets Across the Decades
Footnotes & Flashbacks: The State of Yields 4-7-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 4-7-24
Payroll March 2024: Payroll Spike Brings a Political Theme Shift
JOLTS Feb 2024: Steady and Sideways
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-31-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-31-24
PCE Prices, Personal Income & Outlays: Sideways Tone
4Q23 GDP: Final Cut, Moving Parts
FedEx Corp: Costs and Capital Allocation Lead the List
Durable Goods: A Small Boost for Manufacturing Sentiment
New Home Sales Feb 2024: Hope Springs Eternal, but Demand Seasonally
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-24-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-24-24
Pension Profiles: Defined Benefit Drain Rates and Returns
Existing Home Sales Feb 2024: Surrendering to Mortgage Market Reality
FOMC: Hail Powell the Consistent
Housing Starts Feb 2024: Rites of Spring on the Doorstep
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-16-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-16-24
Industrial Production: Capacity Utilization Shows Manufacturing Edging Higher
Retail Sales Feb 2024: Consumers Will Stop Shopping …Someday
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-10-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-10-24
Employment: Real Numbers vs. Fictitious Dystopian Hellscapes
Payroll Feb 2024: Records, Revisions, Reality
United Rentals: In the Market, Right on Cue
JOLTS Jan 2024: Holding at “High” Even if Well Down from Peak
United Rentals: Another Billion Out of the Gate
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 3-3-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 3-3-24
Inflation Gut Check Jan 2024: PCE Prices, Income and Outlays Help the Story
Banks: Leveraged Loans, Classified and Special Mention Mix
4Q23 GDP: Second Estimate, Moving Parts
Iron Mountain: Top 10 BB Tier Bond Issuer, Underrated, Equity Flying High
New Home Sales Jan 2024: Sales Steady, Prices Resilient but Softening
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-25-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-25-24
Carvana: Solid EBITDA, but Does Not Cover GAAP Interest
Existing Home Sales Jan 2024: High End Climbing, Low End Stagnant
Credit Crib Note: CarMax (KMX)
BB vs. CCC: Quality Spread Differentials, Yield Relationships, Relative Returns
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-18-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-18-24
Housing Starts Jan 2024: Slow … Curve Ahead?
Industrial Production: Capacity Utilization Limps Along
Retail Sales Jan 2024: Balancing Act Continues
Boeing: Peer Group Performance and Pension Details
Jan 2024 CPI: The Big 5, Add-ons, and Favorite “CPI-ex” Indexes
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-11-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-11-24
Trade Flows 2023: Trade Partners, Imports/Exports, and Deficits in a Troubled World
Fed Funds vs. PCE Inflation: Peaks and Valleys Across Time
HY vs. IG: Quality Spread Differentials and Comparative Returns
BBB vs. BB: Revisiting the Speculative Grade Divide Differentials
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 2-4-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 2-4-24
Productivity: Takes the Edge off the 4% handle YoY ECI
Employment Cost Index Dec 2023: Compensation Mixed Picture
United Rentals: Another Bellwether Supporting the Macro Health Story
JOLTS Dec 2023: “Little Changed” on Replay
D.R. Horton: Credit Stronger Even if Stock Takes a Step Back
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-28-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 1-28-24
New Home Sales Dec 2023: Endurance Counts
PCE Release Dec 2023: Consumption Strong, Inflation Favorable
Durables: Visibility Limited, Transport View Cloudy
GDP and Fixed Investment: Into the Weeds
4Q23 GDP: Strong Run, Next Question is Stamina
United Airlines: The Camel isn’t Paralyzed Yet
FedEx: Stability Counts, Complexity Challenges
Credit Crib Note: FedEx Corp (FDX)
Histories: Asset Return Journey from 2016 to 2023
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-21-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 1-21-24
Existing Home Sales Dec 2023: Rerun of Multi-Decade Low
Consumer Sentiment: Multiple Personalities
Dec 2023 Housing Starts: Slow 2023 but Speeding Up
Delta: Airline Investors have a Confidence Problem
Industrial Production: Mild Weakness in Capacity Utilization
Retail Sales: Another Solid Consumer Month
Martin Luther King Jr.—MLK was a Fact, Not a Theory
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-14-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 1-14-24
KB Home: Wraps Industry Rebound Year, Exiting on Upswing
Dec 2023 CPI: Big 5 and Add-Ons, the Red Zone Challenge
Boeing: Different Scales, Different Magnitude
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 1-7-24
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-7-24
Employment Part Deux: Unemployment Claims Update
2024 Must be a Year when Facts Matter: The Significance of Jan 6
Dec 2023 Jobs: Not Feeling the Early Ease
JOLTS Nov 2023: Let the Games Begin
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 1-1-24