Sitemap - 2023 - Macro4Micro
Return Quilts: Resilience from the Bottom Up
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-23-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-23-23
Nov 2023 New Homes Sales: Feeling the Volume Fade
PCE Prices, Income and Consumption: Goals and Assists
Durable Goods: Strong Finish, Fresh Start?
3Q23 GDP Final Cut: Swing and a Miss on 5%, Good Contact on PCE Prices
HY Refi Risks: The Maturity Challenge
Nov 2023 Existing Home Sales: Avoids New Lows
Housing Starts Nov 2023: Foot by Foot, Row by Row
John Deere Capital: Asset Quality Follow-up
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-16-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-16-23
Employment: What 200K Handles on Initial Claims Means (Not Much)
Lennar 4Q23: Buyer Buzz, Curve Support
Industrial Production: Steady Course, No Signs of Fade or Flourish
Retail Sales: The Consumer is Not Suffering Yet
FOMC: Hail Powell the Dexterous
Coupon Climb: Phasing into Reality
November CPI: The Big 5 Buckets and Add-Ons
HY vs. IG Excess and Total Returns Across Cycles: The UST Kicker
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-10-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-10-23
Nov 2023 Jobs: A Sad Story of More People Working
HY Multicycle Spreads, Excess Returns, Total Returns
JOLTS Oct 2023: Lights Blinking? Dimmer or On-Off?
Tale of the Tape in GDP: Trump vs. Biden
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 12-3-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 12-3-23
Construction Spending: Timing is Everything
PCE Prices, Consumption, Savings: Good News is Less News
October New Home Sales: Low Bar to Clear
Credit Crib Note: Deere & Co (DE)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-26-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-26-23
October Existing Home Sales: Searching for Lows
Inflation Timelines: Cyclical Histories, Key CPI Buckets
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-19-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-19-23
Housing Starts Oct 2023: Back in the Game Coach?
Industrial Production: Pit Stop or Tapping Brakes?
Retail Sales: No Disturbance in Retail
Pulte: Relative Value Meets “Old School” Coupons
October CPI: The Big 5 Buckets and Add-Ons
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-12-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-12-23
Iron Mountain: Good Climb, Summit Unknown
HY Credit Spreads: Migration, Medians, and Misdirection
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 11-5-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 11-5-23
October Jobs: Market Ponders the Enigma in the Puzzle
Carvana: 3Q23 Quick Read, Long Road
Anywhere and Real Estate Brokerage: Judgement Day
Sept 2023 JOLTS: The World is Flat for Now
Employment Cost Index Sept 2023: Expect the Expected
Fixed Investment in GDP: The Capex Journey
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-29-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-29-23
Savings Rates: Context Across the Cycles
PCE Sept 2023: Consumption Strong, Inflation Steady
Sept New Home Sales: The Need to Live Somewhere
Quality Spread Trends: Treacherous Path, Watch Your Footing
UST Moves: The 1990-1991 Risk Factor Pig Pile
Spread Deltas: Not Rattled but Vulnerable
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-22-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-21-23
UST Moves: 1988-1989 Credit Cycle Swoon
Sept Existing Home Sales: The 7% Solution Running Low
UST Moves 1978-1982: The Inflation and Stagflation Years
Housing: Starts, Completions Firm Sequentially, Permits Down
Industrial Production: Holding Pattern
Retail Sales: The Consumer is Alive and Well
Yield Curve Lookbacks: UST Shifts at Cyclical Turns
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-15-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-15-23
September CPI: Big 5 Buckets and Add-Ons
Trade Flows: Deficits, Tariffs, and China Risk
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-8-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 10-7-23
UAW and Autos: A Big Week for Wins
Jobs ‘R’ Us: The Perils of Plenty by Occupation
Carvana and Uncertain Used Car Dynamics
Political Economy: The Contrasts are Not Hard to Find These Days
Construction: Project Economics Drive Nonresidential
Footnotes & Flashbacks: The State of Yields 10-1-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 10-1-23
Political Economy: 45-Day Policy Death March or Snatched from the Jaws?
August New Homes Sales: Feeling the Burn Yet?
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-24-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 9-24-23
Autos: War Stories & Anecdotes
August Existing Homes Sales: Same as It Ever Was
FOMC: Higher for Longer, Confused for Shorter
Housing: Sequential Starts Ease, Permits/Completions Mixed
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-17-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 9-16-23
Industrial Production: From Rock Steady to Rocky Road
Systemic Corporate and Consumer Debt Metrics
Rental Equipment: A Cyclical Confidence Booster
Retail Sales: Consumer Watch on the Front Burner
August CPI: Inflation Fears…They’re Back?!
Credit Crib Notes: Toll Brothers (TOL)
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 9-10-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 9-10-23
Credit Crib Notes: United Airlines (UAL)
Credit Crib Notes: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Credit Crib Notes: Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS)
Political Economy: Topics Where Facts Matter
Market Commentary: The B to CCC Adventure
Existing Homes Sales: Inventories Stay Tight, Prices Solid
Market Commentary: BBB vs. BB Quality Spreads Revisited
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-20-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-20-23
Industrial Production: The Recession that Wouldn’t
Housing Starts and Permits: Single Family Advances, Multifamily Backpedals
Employment Across the Presidents
Retail Sales: Consumer Stands Firm
Credit Spreads: Proportions Matter in Risk Compensation
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-13-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-13-23
Midyear Trade Flows: That Other Deficit
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 8-6-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 8-6-23
July Employment: Fine Tuning but No Setbacks
US Downgrade: Pin the Tail on the Sovereign Ratings Criteria
JOLTS: Job Openings Lose Some Velocity
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-30-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-30-23
Employment Cost Index: Rings of the Redwood
Chasing the Dragon: 2% Handles Beckon for PCE Inflation
New Home Sales: Low Bar for Comps YoY, Sequentially Mixed
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-23-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-23-23
United Airlines - Company Comment
Existing Home Sales: Bare Cupboards, Hungry Crowd
Housing Starts: Multifamily Moonwalk
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization: A Mild Fade
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-16-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-16-23
Consumer Debt in Systemic Context
June CPI: Big 5 and Add-Ons…A Big Win
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-9-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-9-23
Jobs: Mild JOLT for May Trumped by June ADP Shock
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 7-2-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 7-2-23
Fed Funds – Inflation Differentials: Strange History
Good (Mixed) News: Sub-4% PCE Wins
HY Spreads: Proportions and Risk Compensation
New Home Sales: Riding Higher, Steady Elevation
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-25-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-25-23
Existing Homes Sales: Feeling a Bit Flat
Housing Starts: Slow and Steady Sequential Moves
Fed Funds vs. Credit Spreads and Yields Across the Cycles
Footnotes & Flashbacks: Asset Returns 6-18-23
Footnotes & Flashbacks: State of Yields 6-18-23
Industrial Production in May: Holding, Waiting
FOMC: Hit Squad or Suicide Squad
Ashtead 4Q23/FY 2023 - Company Comment
May CPI: The Big 5 Buckets and Add-Ons
Credit Spreads: Quality Differentials 2022-2023
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Asset Returns, 6-11-23
Footnotes and Flashbacks: State of Yields, 6-11-23
United Rentals-Investor Day Backs Up Bulls
Carvana - Smoke Signals Get Smokier
Reversal, Takedown, or Escape? Market Weighted vs. Equal Weighted
Single Family Rental: A Major D.R. Horton Asset Sale
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending June 4, 2023
Equitrans and Mountain Valley Pipeline’s Wild Ride
May Employment: Payroll Records Continue
US Corporate Debt % GDP: It’s All in the Mix
JOLTs: Debt Ceiling Threat Did Not Derail Postings
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending May 28, 2023
US Debt % GDP: Raiders of the Lost Treasury
Industry Comment: Homebuilders Still Feeling the Love with Toll Brothers Results
Personal Income and PCE: Inflation Stickier
Toll Brothers F2Q23: Company Comment
New Home Sales: Volumes Up, Median Prices Down
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending May 21, 2023
Midstream Energy: ONEOK-Magellan a Sign of More Consolidation Ahead?
Existing Home Sales: Will the Party Start?
Home Starts and Permits: Performing with a Net?
Industrial Production: Ticking in Stereo
Magellan Finds ONEOK: Company Comment
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending May 12, 2023
Fixed Investment: Some Structure and Equipment Layers
Oil Sands: Canadian Natural Keeps Winning but Suncor Counterattacks
Construction Spending: Demystifying Nonresidential Mix
Footnotes and Flashbacks: May 7, 2023
Regional Banks: The Credit Crisis Contraction Theme
Employment April 2023: Post-COVID Deep Dive by Occupation
Anywhere Real Estate 1Q23: Company Comment
Service Corp International 1Q23: Company Comment
JOLTS March 2023: Inclement…but Surf’s Up
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending April 30, 2023
Caterpillar: CAT and United Rentals for Some Capex Color
United Rentals 1Q23: Company Comment
Employment Cost Index: Slow Motion
New Home Sales: Feels Like a Light Tailwind
PulteGroup 1Q23: Company Comment
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending April 23, 2023
Regional Banks: Mornings After, Market Reactions, and Consumer Finance
AutoNation 1Q23: Company Comment
D.R. Horton 2Q23: Company Comment
Existing Home Sales: Dead Calm
United Airlines 1Q23: Company Comment
Housing: Starts and Permits and the Working Capital Challenge
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending April 16, 2023
Consumer Finance and Banks: Q&A Gauntlet Begins
Delta Air Lines: Tailwinds on the Return Flight
Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing Puzzle Box
CarMax 4Q23: Wacky Market, KMX Stays Steady
FedEx: Sweeping Restructuring Plan as FDX Seeks Rally from Recent Setbacks
Oil & Gas: Feeling its Cartel Oats Again, Comparative Upstream Performance
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ended April 9, 2023
JOLTs: Partly Cloudy, No Lightning – Yet
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending April 2, 2023
US and European Banks: Post-SVB Market Turmoil and Securities Swings
Automotive: Comparative Performance for Auto Retail, Auto OEMs, and Suppliers
Homebuilders: Updated Returns Across Shifting Sector Fundamentals
BDCs: Comparative Returns, Private Credit Exposure Chatter, and Silicon Valley Bank
Personal Income, Outlays and PCE Prices: Calm Before Confusion
Silicon Valley Bank: Loans and Haircuts
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending March 26, 2023
Regional Banks Contagion and the SVB Loan Carry Question Feeds the CSFB Panic
New Home Sales: Holding Pattern
Fed Action: Roulette or Dominos?
Carvana: Prisoner’s Dilemma, Used Car Getaway
Existing Home Sales: The Sun Will Come Out…When?
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending March 19, 2023
Banks and Macro Nerves: When Regional Becomes National
IG Corporate Spreads: Tough Pathway, A Few Doors Ahead
US HY Spread Histories: Weird Science, New Parts
Spreads Across Tiers: Decompression + Volatility
Industrial Production: Flat for Now, New Downside Risks Loom
Housing: Starts, Permits, Construction, and Cyclical Moving Parts
CPI: Hungry for Inflation Outliers?
CPI: Feb 2023 Big 5 and Add-Ons
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending March 12, 2023
SVB Reprieve: Hail Powell the Merciful
Silicon Valley Bank: A Man has Got to Know His Limitations
Housing Sector: Reaction to the Regional Bank Spiral
Silicon Valley Bank: Depositor Frames of Reference
Silicon Valley Bank: How did the UST Curve React?
Employment Feb 2023: Forcefully Ambiguous, Definitively Mixed
Initial Claims: Historical Context on what 211K Means
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending March 3, 2023
Oil Sands: Canadian Natural and MEG Energy Wrap Reporting Season
Carvana: Mornings After and Crowd Chasing
Anywhere Real Estate: Credit Profile
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending Feb 24, 2023
Auto Retail and Carvana: Shifting Auto Retail Dynamics
Residential Brokerage: Anywhere Real Estate and an Ugly Quarter
New Home Sales: Sequential Stabilization Beats a Sharp Stick
Income, Outlays, Inflation: Rerun? Or Trilogy of Terror?
Yield Per Unit Duration: It Turns on How You See It
Existing Home Sales: Still in Freefall
Footnotes and Flashbacks Week Ending Feb 17, 2023
Deere and Capital Goods: Earnings Another Vote Against Recession
Auto Retail: Industry Evolves with Steady Bolt-Ons and Expanding Services
Avis: Cash Flow Boom and the Swing in Car Rental
Business Development Companies: A Rapidly Growing High Income Sector
Homebuilders: Average Selling Prices by Company
Housing Starts: Pressure On But Holding Together
Pension Plan Drain Rates: Plan Benefit Payments % Plan Assets
Capacity Utilization: Tailwinds Return
CPI: January Big 5 and Add-Ons
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending Feb 10, 2023
Capital Goods: Cummins as a Microcosm in the "Cyclical Heavies"
Penske and Auto Retail: Not Signaling Consumer Weakness and the Market Agrees
Autos: Suppliers, Volume Wildcards, and Capex Demands
Those Were the Days: HY Relative Yields, HY Relative Risk Premiums
Inflation Rorschach Test: Looking at Relief and Stimulus
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending Feb 3, 2023
Capital Goods: Caterpillar and CNH Industrial Constructive with a Mix of Optimism
Autos: GM and Ford Diverge - For Now
Homebuilder Earnings: Feeding the Optimism
Jobs: The Human Wave Continues
JOLTS: More Bodies for More Jobs, Demand is Strong
Employment Cost Index: Labor vs. Capital …Tide Turning or Swirling?
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending January 27, 2023
PCE Inflation: Wild History, Recurring Oil Volatility
D.R. Horton: Bellwether Leader Weighs in but Real Test is Ahead
United Rentals: Nonresidential Construction Proxy
Rails and Freight: Cyclical Signals Show Mixed Sentiment
PCE Inflation Ticks Lower, So Does Spending
New Home Sales: Struggle for Balance
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week Ending January 20, 2023
Existing Home Sales: Inventory Radar or Sonar?
Goldman-Morgan Stanley Diverge
Ally: Surprise to the Upside in Mixed Consumer Finance Picture
Alcoa: Small Player vs. the Big Boys
Kinder Morgan: Free Cash Flow Machine
Home Starts, Permits, Construction - Dec 2022
Capacity Utilization: The Fade Begins
Footnotes and Flashbacks: Week ended January 13, 2023
Delta: Earnings Offer Signs of Consumer Strength and Industry Rebound
Bank Earnings Good Enough to Frustrate Bears
Homebuilding: KB Homes November FY Starts Clock on Orders and Cancellation Trends
CPI Wrap for 2022: Beginning of the End?
The BB-BBB Divide: Manageable Gap
BB vs. CCC Spreads: Choose Wisely
December Jobs Report: Mixed Feelings