Political Economy: The Contrasts are Not Hard to Find These Days
The Kelly confirmations on Trump raise extraordinary issues.
With Washington getting stranger by the minute, we offer up a simple compare-and-contrast visual on whether you trust John Kelly or Donald Trump on one of the worst things ever heard from a President.
With the House Speaker removed for the first time in US history today and Trump getting slapped with a gag order by the Judge for targeting a court clerk, the toxification of all things Washington-related continues.
The next stage of the budget drill will have a very interesting 6 weeks ahead to the extent that the House even has a leader or the parties can develop a workable plan.
We see all this chaos as relevant to political governance worries, policy risk, and legislative roadblocks.
In a generally disturbing week of even more craziness in Washington with the McCarthy vs. Gaetz “Clash of the Mental Titans” coming to a head alongside a fraud trial in Manhattan, John Kelly speaking up has brought more political pressures for the GOP to speak up.
A big topic this week hearkens back to a headline in The Atlantic back in 2020 around what Trump did or did not say about veterans who were killed in action or who left wars as Wounded Warriors. The latest news from General Kelly this week follows statements by Trump in substance calling for General Mark Milley to be executed (see Political Economy: 45-Day Policy Death March or Snatched from the Jaws? 10-1-23).
The stock market also got beaten up today on UST curve fears and not on the chemistry of Trump with his various judges and prosecutors. That said, there is no hiding from the convergence of economic policy and the irrational visceral politics these days. To what extent the amped up hate contest flows into another government shutdown deadline or brings threats to defense outlays is yet to play out.
Kelly vs. Trump: No contest on credibility
John Kelly went on record this week about the various outrageous statements attributed to Trump after remaining silent since the Trump term. We assume the threats to General Mark Milley (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs) prompted Kelly to step up on this matter. He confirmed the fact that Trump called the dead and maimed heroes of various wars as “losers” and “suckers.” Similar statements about wounded veterans were attributed to Trump by Mark Milley also.
You just don’t say those kinds of things. Trump denies it all of course.
With that, we present the following two visuals:
Indulge me…
Suspension of disbelief is a short walk from cowardice.
In the following, I offer food for thought outside the markets. Though, in the end, what plays out politically will impact the markets dramatically.
Who you believe in the latest round of “Did he really say that?” is important, and the military has been under siege from the leaders (by Trump) down to the families of the enlisted (by Tuberville). In the meantime, most leaders of the GOP are MIA.
Most know of General John Kelly as a highly respected Marine who served as Trump’s Chief of Staff as well as his Homeland Security head. General Kelly’s son was killed in action in Afghanistan (while on his third combat tour) and another son is a Marine officer. The loss of a child in combat adds some context. You would assume a parent would not want to hear what Trump had to say on KIA soldiers (especially in light of his doctor’s note for his bone spurs to get out of the draft at the peak of the Vietnam War [Trump graduated in 1968; this doctor, incidentally, was a tenant in one of Fred’s buildings per the New York Times]).
The statements attributed to Trump related to a failure to honor WWI veterans on a visit to France for the 100th anniversary of victory in 2018. The planned cemetery visit (the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery) was to honor those lost in the battle of Belleau Wood, which ranks with Guadalcanal, Iwo Jima, and the Chosin Reservoir (the “Frozen Chosin”) in the “lore of the corps.” Kelly managed to brave the rainy weather without worrying about his hair. Another event cited by Kelly was tied to a visit on Memorial Day to Arlington National Cemetery in 2017.
For some pop culture references, the father of Desmond Doss, the hero in the movie “Hacksaw Ridge” was in combat at Belleau Wood. (He shows up later in the movie to save the day at the court martial scene). For another movie moment, “Battle Los Angeles” features a group where they say “Retreat?” then “Hell!” and chant “2/5”, i.e., 2nd Battalion/5th Marine Regiment. (We would note the “1/6” was also a big part of the battle at Belleau Wood.)
The “Retreat Hell” slogan ties into the history where the Marines showed up at Belleau Wood and were greeted by a French officer who told them to retreat. The French officer quickly received the response (as the history is written): "Retreat Hell! We just got here!" The Germans reportedly gave the term “Devil Dogs” (Teufel Hunden) to the ferocious attacking Marines. Some of it may be legend, but the core parts of the stories are history. Hollywood pays attention. Maybe Trump never leaves Fox News.
The 2018 event (Nov 10, 2018) that Trump skipped in defense of his comb-over was not a small thing in the context of history given the 100th anniversary of the war and given the famous role played by the US Marines in the battle. The ceremony took place on the Marine Corps’ birthday of Nov 10 no less!.
I admit to growing up in a house with a framed photo of Chesty Puller on the wall and a father who enlisted in the Marines after graduating high school to serve in Korea. So that colors my personal view.
As a kid, I even got to shake hands with Mitchell Paige at a 1st Marine Division event in Boston (1960s). At the time, it was like shaking hands with Ares and Thor at the same time (for a more “colorful” recounting of his exploits, see this version). These types of people are rare, but they represent a lot of the “best of” traits that have made life easier for the rest of us. The dead were not able to get the opportunity to have good luck later and the severely wounded had many barriers.
My Aunt worked at the VA Hospital in Brockton where she dealt with 100% disabled vets including those classified as such for mental health issues. As a kid, I would occasionally hang out with one of the vets at the gate to the local Legion baseball games (he would collect donations for the Legion program). These are just the kind of people who need health care and services. That gentleman had a tough ending, but he was serving in Vietnam while Trump nursed his bone spurs.
Trump’s credibility as a leader was bad enough without this latest confirmation by General Kelly. We will see if Rubio, DeSantis, Cruz, or any GOP leaders speak up. I’m not holding my breath.