New Home Sales March 2026: Favorable Volume, Weaker Prices

The Census is catching up on data since the shutdown with Feb numbers included in the March 2026 new home sales release.

May 06, 2026

New home sales are generating an uphill rally with volumes higher sequentially and YoY but prices are softening. The lower prices saw the new home sales median price break below the $400K line to $387.
The critical South region at 65% of total sales (SAAR basis) did the heavy lifting at +8.1% YoY for March 2026. We see 3 of 4 regions up YoY with the West down by -12.7% YoY for a national level increase of +3.3%. That includes the Midwest at +11.8% and Northeast at +3.8%.
Sequentially from Feb 2026, the higher and lower mix by region was a split decision with the South higher (+11.1%) from Feb along with the tiny Northeast market (+80%). The West was -3.5% and Midwest at -5.0%.
Median price for March 2026 was $387.4K vs. $409K in Feb 2026 and YoY was down from $412.9K. As frames of reference, calendar 2025 posted a median price of $417.4K and 2024 at $420.3K.

The above chart updates the new single family home sales series from 1963, and the current 682K (SAAR) marks a healthy rebound relative to the grim Jan 2026 number (583K) but still weak in the context of 2H25. The volumes now are in the zone of the 1980s/1990s median but well below the median of the housing boom/bust cycle from 2001-2009 as noted in the chart.

As we look back to the peak of the housing bubble, we see 1389K in July 2005 or 2x the March 2026 volume. The COVID panic buying and relocation spree in Aug 2020 of 1016K was a wild period for new home sales and home starts in a ZIRP market with very low mortgage rates. For March 2026, the 682K is stronger than less than half the 2025 months.

The above chart plots the share of total home sales (new + existing) that were captured by the “new home” builders. We see the share is now at 14.6% vs. the long-term median of 11.6%. When inventory is scarce, the right home at the right price wins. That has favored builders. That is especially the case with financing incentives. Given the hurdles to exit in the existing home sales market in mortgage refinancing (“golden handcuffs,” etc.) that we routinely discuss in our housing commentary, the shortage of existing housing inventory at economic all-in costs remains a major headwind for existing home sales (see Existing Home Sales March 2026: New Beginnings or New Ends? 4-15-26).

The volumes are steady, but the weaker prices are consistent with some of the color we hear from major builders on prices and narrowing gross margins with incentives still a material part of their selling strategies. The two giants of the homebuilders (DR Horton and Lennar) are both seeing material gross margin pressure from their earlier cyclical peaks. The 6% handle mortgage rates are not offering relief on monthly payments and affordability with the past week showing 6.5% handle surveys as reported by Mortgage News Daily.

The median price time series above tells a simple story that prices are under pressure after a period of record highs and a long stretch over the $400K threshold with a few dips below the $400K line.

The above chart gives a different visual angle on the median new home sales prices from early 2022. That is a lot of $400K handles with some sub-$400K outliers. The current $387.4K is a sign of the pressure on housing. The price metrics can shift with regional mix as well as home price tiers and related supply issues. The affordability question is still intertwined with the monthly payment pressures from mortgages. It is about more than price.

The time series above updates the new single family home sales across the cycles since 1973 for the #1 and #2 regions of the South and the West. The 441K for the South is around 65% of the total of all single family new home sales (SAAR) and marks a sequential rise of +11.1% from Feb 2026 and is up by 8.1% YoY. The West at 138K is 20% of the total. For the month, the West was -3.5% sequentially and -12.7% YoY.

The timeline for new home sales for the smaller Midwest and much smaller Northeast market is detailed above. The Midwest (over 11% of total) was +5.0% sequentially and +11.8% YoY. The Northeast market (4% of total) was +80% sequentially and +3.8% YoY.

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