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Does the index include the giant airline packages or the giant UPS packages and of course lets not forget the coming Auto packages will be interesting to see if the 4.5% keeps dropping in the next few months

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They do not but presumably they will in time. Not sure Delta would have been in there since they ratified early. Only around 6% of private sector is collective bargaining, so the real moves still come back to things like the Healthcare & Social Assistance wage numbers and some of the lower paid, high body count services lines. We get a flavor of those numbers in the monthly payroll updates along the way. The service wage metrics will struggle to slow much! No question there. The other indicators ( JOLTs numbers etc.) tell a story also. People will quit for a higher rate. Supply-demand...

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