We scan the durable goods release columns for MoM trends in new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories as the ex-Defense line starts to weaken.
Thank you Mr Calhoun. Glenn do you think that if Boeing gets it together that it could lift the entire pile of data back into green (wonder if production can ramp fairly quickly or like 1 extra airframe per month for the next 2 years kind of schedule) and would that be a good thing for rate decisions or a bad thing and maybe it is time and place dependent.
I keep reading the aero and airline trade rags and come away with the feeling that this company and its supplier chain is one big surprise. Even if they get their house in order, which part is next for drama from big (engines) to small (fasteners)? Even if they all get into full flight, I would assume the FOMC brain is also "ex-transport" whether they admit it or not. I would imagine the next thing they watch after inflation, employment/wages and PCE is oil (for those who secretly don't think it is transitory but can't use their outside voice). In the "old days" Industrial Production was always the big data point for recession dating. Does not carry the clout in a service economy I assume. Important, but less so.
Thank you Mr Calhoun. Glenn do you think that if Boeing gets it together that it could lift the entire pile of data back into green (wonder if production can ramp fairly quickly or like 1 extra airframe per month for the next 2 years kind of schedule) and would that be a good thing for rate decisions or a bad thing and maybe it is time and place dependent.
Thx
I keep reading the aero and airline trade rags and come away with the feeling that this company and its supplier chain is one big surprise. Even if they get their house in order, which part is next for drama from big (engines) to small (fasteners)? Even if they all get into full flight, I would assume the FOMC brain is also "ex-transport" whether they admit it or not. I would imagine the next thing they watch after inflation, employment/wages and PCE is oil (for those who secretly don't think it is transitory but can't use their outside voice). In the "old days" Industrial Production was always the big data point for recession dating. Does not carry the clout in a service economy I assume. Important, but less so.