Will be very interesting to see if shelter actually continues to help Jerome (Blackstone just spent 10B and says rents are accelerating upward again) vs the next few months base effects rolling off being replaced with 0.3 or something like that pressuring the trend the FED and Whitehouse want to see
The real time rent trend data experts keep calling for that benefit to continue, but the picture seems mixed regionally. Single family rents doing well etc. So much of the CPI index is tied to rents directly and indirectly (36% of shelter line). The whole concept of Owners' Equivalent Rent (26.7% of CPI) is a conceptual cluster of circles. When they changed it back in the early 1980s it was understandable with homes as an investment, but there is something odd about someone with no mortgage and a 100% owned home with a rising home value vs a few years ago (or someone locked in at 3% mortgage and a 40% LTV) that is supposed to be getting hit by inflation via OER. All very strange as a metric. Cost of housing is higher, but CPI should be a little closer to your ATM/checking account than that OER metric.
Will be very interesting to see if shelter actually continues to help Jerome (Blackstone just spent 10B and says rents are accelerating upward again) vs the next few months base effects rolling off being replaced with 0.3 or something like that pressuring the trend the FED and Whitehouse want to see
The real time rent trend data experts keep calling for that benefit to continue, but the picture seems mixed regionally. Single family rents doing well etc. So much of the CPI index is tied to rents directly and indirectly (36% of shelter line). The whole concept of Owners' Equivalent Rent (26.7% of CPI) is a conceptual cluster of circles. When they changed it back in the early 1980s it was understandable with homes as an investment, but there is something odd about someone with no mortgage and a 100% owned home with a rising home value vs a few years ago (or someone locked in at 3% mortgage and a 40% LTV) that is supposed to be getting hit by inflation via OER. All very strange as a metric. Cost of housing is higher, but CPI should be a little closer to your ATM/checking account than that OER metric.