The US as an Aspiring Emerging Market: Fiscal SNAFU, Political FUBAR
The latest attempt to use Executive Orders as Trump’s personal constitutional amendments is a dangerous trend.
Raise your hand if you are in favor of banning mail-in voting, weaponizing the Postal Service, and allowing the White House and DOJ to control state voter rolls.
With the SAVE Act faltering, Trump issued an Executive Order (“Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity In Federal Elections”) that seeks to Federalize elections and to cede control of state voter rolls to Washington under the DOJ and executive branch. As evident in his recent challenge to birthright citizenship, Trump believes he has powers to ignore Congress and take action on anything he desires even if the constitution and/or legislation does not allow it (e.g., IEEPA, unilateral action on birthright citizenship, etc.). There is no constitutional line Trump will not cross.
After the rough trip to SCOTUS on the birthright citizenship debate, Trump now wants control of state voting rolls in what is an aggressive push to salvage midterms for the GOP and continue to feed his own story line that he did not get his ass royally kicked in 2020 by 7 million votes. This latest gambit once again crashes into clearly written constitutional rules.
The Executive Order comes with DOJ threats of criminal actions against state officials and enlists the postal service as well. Trump must be worried (he should be) that his plunging ratings to record lows will hit the GOP hard in midterms. Tariffs and now the Iran War have inflicted economic damage on both a global scale and at the national level and set the stage for pain in household budgets.
Trump’s less-than-dazzling performance on Iran includes his tragically incoherent, ill-advised, inconsistent, and self-contradictory statements this past week on what the goals were at the outset of the Iran War and what comes next. The economic fallout is unfolding into what could be a global disaster if escalation goes in the direction of “take the oil” or puts many boots on the ground. His grab of network time last week brought an internally inconsistent replay and offered nothing new. Trump is back to a countdown to blowing up all the power plants (a clear war crime).
The latest Executive Order on elections is the next step in his ambitions. Most people who read or are not “in denial of history” know the legacy of voter suppression – and literally disenfranchisement. Disenfranchisement and voter suppression are a matter of fact in the history books (see Martin Luther King Jr.—MLK was a Fact, Not a Theory 1-15-24). MLK was assassinated only 58 years ago this weekend (April 4, 1968), so it was a strange week to launch the order. It is not as if the baby boomers were not ringside and fully aware of the violent reaction to the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Trump’s Executive Order would be a stark setback.
We add a few links below as memory joggers on some ugly history some would deny and seek to erase. The fact that there is a lack of historical perspective on real events in the White House should not be a surprise since factual history is viewed as poison. These days, it is all about packaging themes and not the historical reality.
Trump should be quizzed by the press on the Elections Clause (Article I, Section 4, Clause 1). No way he read it. Or no way he cares.
Trump “going postal” and bringing DOJ threats…
Anyone can consult with the Constitution on who makes the call on state level voting rights. The “Elections Clause” is there for the reading. The Executive Order signed by Trump this past week will fail, but may have backstop plans to declare emergencies and try out a range of contingency plans to maintain power. Such a view is not far-fetched speculation since it is evidence-based (Jan 6, etc.). His motives could not be more transparent.
Trump’s order enlists the DOJ (now run by his personal attorney) and the Postal Service as he adds a new angle on “going postal.” If you read the executive order, it is easy to see the massive logistical maze that he is calling for and the extreme manpower demands and tech support to even execute something like what the order proposes.
The goal is to control voting rolls, but the intent of the plan design seems to be to assure failure. That would in turn justify other “emergency actions” by Trump. Remember back in 2020 when Trump’s appointee (a rich white male executive) was ordering high speed mail processing machines removed? This mail-in process is much worse as designed by Team Trump. It will be enforced and supervised by his executive branch loyalists.
Away from the illegitimacy and illegality of the executive order, the design of the proposal shows the darker side of intent. The US Postal Service lost $9 billion in FY 2025 and cannot even handle the burden it has now. Trump’s ability to influence the USPS can be debated, but the stakes are high.
This proposed voting process structure might offer a chance to Trump et al. to intercede on an emergency basis in 2026 and would also allow him to direct that disruptions of election operations be aimed toward key swing states and blue cities with high vote counts. What he proposes appears set up to fail and could allow for additional emergency action to throw out election results. It would also allow partisan state legislatures the opportunity to step in with some false grounds he devises. Refusal to certify elections could be a partisan maneuver in a way it was not (even if close) in 2020.
White House control of state voting rolls…
The immediate motive is to control elections at the White House and executive branch level. The main thrust is to have a subservient DOJ (provisionally run by his former personal lawyer) to mitigate Trump’s fear of power erosion. The legal risks to Team Trump of a Democratic led house include Epstein investigations and corruption hearings whether self-dealing conflicts of interest or family deals. That would get aired in detail.
It is also about Trump looking for more support for his “Big Lie” that he won the 2020 election (in a “landslide” for Trump) even though there is zero evidence produced despite the years that have passed. Trump still wants to obscure that he is 0 for 3 in winning 50% or more of the popular vote. The same is true for Trump losing the popular vote in 2 out of 3 elections.
The White House will try to understate the significance of his proposed mail-in actions, but it is an enormously threatening move. As a frame of reference, voting tallies in the 2024 election (won by Trump) indicates 1 in 3 voted by mail for an estimated 48 million. That includes 40% of that group comprised of voters 65+ years in age. The balance across “geographic settings” showed 1 in 3 urban, 1 in 3 suburban, and 1 in 4 rural voters. Of the 48 million, white voters were around 27 million. The stats include 1 in 4 Democrats and 1 in 4 GOP with 5 states showing 1 in 3 GOP. That is a lot of votes.
The desire to squeeze swing state turnout and especially in major urban areas is not a mystery if you give it a little thought. The election turns on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona. Trump also wants to mitigate risks in Nevada and Ohio (Obama carried in 2012 but GOP since).
Lack of evidence never gets in the way of a Trump story line…
We include some notable reading materials on immigration and voting below. The facts torpedo the false premises of Trump’s immigration themes and are worth a glance. The barriers to facts include disinformation waves and mental laziness exploited by Team Trump. Even the Heritage Foundation and CATO (the antithesis of left wing) have furnished studies and data that show how Trump’s claims on “illegals” voting are BS.
Trump is more of an adjective-heavy and “you lie, and I’ll swear to it” type. Trump has produced no factual support for his 2020 fraud claims – ever. He is a fact free, numbers free, declarative sentence and adjective-heavy kind of guy.
Evidence is not there, but it seldom matters in the power grab…
Trump’s Claims About Noncitizens Voting Are False. We Can Prove It. (CATO Institute)
Debunking Lies About Voting and Citizenship (Brennan Center for Justice)
How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very (Brookings)
Analysis: Heritage Foundation’s Database Undermines Claims of Recent Voter Fraud (Brennan)
As noted, we would highlight that the Heritage Foundation (the Project 2025 crowd) and CATO (Libertarian) are on the right wing and conservative side of the political spectrum on issues. Heritage is in a different zip code. Like Trump’s delusions around the 7 million votes in 2020, it is very hard for studies to find evidence of what is not there. Trump can just spout it without evidence and the red hat bobbleheads just fall into line.
Of the 47 Presidents, only two of them made this false claim of “rigged” election and massive, outcome-changing voter fraud, and they are both Trump (#45 and #47). Andrew Jackson had some gripes in 1824, so he gets a portrait on Trump’s Wall. Al Gore had the hanging chad controversy in 2000, but he was a classier and more patriotic guy than Trump. Of course, Gore would not complain at all if he had lost by 7 million votes. Trump’s behavior and recent executive order on voting is a sign of how far America has fallen as it starts to imitate an emerging market.
Jaded history of voter suppression…
While the historical revisionists who have been charged with rewriting history at the Smithsonian (JD Vance and his beauty queen legal eagle sidekick), the reality is that voter suppression has been a “great” American tradition.
The goal of undermining groups of Americans is usually about those that are on the “other side” politically or viewed in a racial or ethnophobic light. The word “disenfranchised” was a literal term for decades in the US. The history typically applied to blacks in the South, but it is now broader with a target on the back of immigrants broadly and those from Latin America and the Caribbean more narrowly.
The voter suppression topic is about historical facts vs. fiction and the need to cover up investigations of bad behavior (and worse intent) that we see today in many areas (e.g. Epstein). It literally takes a few minutes to google and confirm the voter suppression history even during the baby boomer years ahead of the Voting Rights Act. If we go deeper into Jim Crow history, it is of course much worse.
We include an excerpt below from an earlier note we published (see Martin Luther King Jr.—MLK was a Fact, Not a Theory 1-15-24). The history – denied or ignored by Team Trump – offers a reminder of why voting hurdles are such a sensitive topic. That is especially the case when the barriers being created are to deter a problem that has not been proven to even exist outside of Trump’s rambling blather and blind embrace by MAGA followers.
The history of voting rights ugly but Trump will not even admit it ever existed…
“A notable example of disenfranchisement… was Louisiana. Black voter registration fell from 95.6% before 1896 disenfranchisement laws were passed to 9.5% right after that and then down to 1.1% (not a typo) in 1904. Alabama voter registration fell from 180,000 in 1900 to 3,000 in 1903. Florida election law changes in 1888 saw black voter turnout fall from 62% to 11% in 1892 and to 5% by 1896. Black voter turnout in Mississippi was 29% in 1888, 2% in 1892, and 0% in 1895. You get the idea. There are a lot of examples.”
The above history is old, but it is a reminder that victories can soon give way to takebacks. That is the case with Trump’s latest actions. “Old news” does not change the history, and admitting it is a start for the voter rollback advocates to be taken seriously. Otherwise, it is just the same old racism and xenophobia and closet fascist impulses to suppress voting that extended into the early 1960s.
Those of us watching the voter suppression from afar on TV in the 1960s and reading the news in our younger years (Johnson Administration) underscore that it was not really that long ago with Year 250 for the nation teed up in 2026. This latest executive order from Trump would be a dismal way to celebrate the Declaration of Independence and the founding of the nation.
A few samples on suppression histories:
Mississippi as the champion of disenfranchisement and suppression: “Although Mississippi had the highest Black population of any state in the 1960s, only 6.7% of eligible Black voters were registered to vote by 1964.” The history of these states has made for a lot of movies. If you want to skip reading, check out Netflix or Prime. Mississippi Burning is a great one. So is the movie Selma for Alabama. The narrow topic of registration numbers (whether % of the black voters or the voter counts by number) are objective facts. The motive behind voting rules are more subjective these days (even if obvious to most rational thinkers).
Alabama is also on the All-America Team in disenfranchisement and voter suppression. The black voter registration numbers were ugly as JFK was on his way to the White House. Words like “Selma” and “Bloody Sunday” (1965) and racist cult heroes such as Bull Connor do not need much introduction. It is understandable that there would be sensitivities on voting rights as a topic in the ranks of baby boomers who witnessed it (live or on TV) or for anyone who can read a book (a group in apparent decline by choice). The movie Selma works for those bored by voter registration stats and blind acceptance of “voter ID” disinformation. The very real factual history underscores why many might challenge Trump’s desire to rewrite the Election Clause after he could not get Congress to pass suppression legislation (the election clause requires Congress to overrule states).
“In 1964, just prior to passage of the VRA, only Mississippi had a smaller percentage of eligible African Americans registered to vote than Alabama, 6.7 percent compared to 23.0 percent, though some sources say Alabama had less than that.”
Georgia looms larger than Alabama or Mississippi in the Senate and Presidential elections since GA is a critical swing state. GA leaders saw Trump pressure them to “fix” the election outcome after he lost that state. The GOP Governor and State Secretary told Trump to pound sand on his false claims. Such courage (integrity?) is scarce these days. GA is also in the top tier of suppression history. Senator Warnock has been taking heat (hate?) for his opposition to the SAVE Act. History is on Warnock’s side in Georgia. As a frame of reference, GA ranks #2 in the Tuskegee historical rankings for number of blacks lynched. Mississippi is #1, Texas #3, Louisiana #4, and Florida #5. Those don’t tie into voting rights, but they do tie into the concept of intimidation, violence and bad outcomes when people with hoods (or masks) hang out around the voting polls (about those ICE masks…).
The voting rights debate is intrinsically colored by racism and xenophobia …
The hard right political groups in the US, whether MAGA or old school Christian Nationalist racists, will deny the realities of the 3-state sample above (states like Louisiana and Texas are often overlooked in this peer group). The racists or historical revisionists will attack the whole concept of voter suppression in recent history, but at least the White House should admit the above histories are facts. They do not. That colors their current motives. After all, Trump had stated the Civil War could have been “negotiated” (he is not an avid reader of history).
There is plenty of history on voting rights struggles and bad stories across the decades with voting rights at the center of the issues and also as the trigger for Klan activity. Florida is a state that gets overshadowed by its noisier more troubled neighbors, but check out the movie Rosewood for some horrors of the past in Trump’s home state.
These are the types of histories that Trump and MAGA deny and will get erased by design. When it comes to voter actions from Trump, assume bad intent. It is not hard to find it if you look. His goal is to lower turnout and create room for challenges by his Federal and DOJ team with his personal lawyer now holding the top job at the DOJ.
You can’t blame a guy for trying? Yes, you can.
Trump using an Executive Order to take over state voting to suppress votes will violate the clear letter of the Constitution and the Elections Clause. That was the case in birthright citizenship also. The fact that they will push ahead on that path anyway speaks to the people involved and how the court was stacked.
Team Trump can ask “What have we to lose?” with such efforts. The country and its voters of course ask that same question. They have much to lose just like a few countries did in Europe in the 1920s and 1930s.
For many voters, running the gauntlet of ICE threats at the polling places has some parallels. The image of ICE as overpaid, underqualified, undertrained, masked thugs on high protein diets is not without merit. They freely beat up eligible voters and US citizens with immunity and get a blank check from above (it is on video but skate from accountability). So, what would regulate their behavior at the polls when it is risk free?
For voters, an ICE presence is not an incentive to get to the polling place. That is why Team Trump also wants to take away the mail option. Reduce the avenues available.
The bottom line is “ICE + voter intimidation + banning mail voting = lower turnout.” It is not complicated.
Some executive order excerpts…
The Executive Order seeks to institutionalize the control of state elections at the Federal level. We try to picture the DOJ and Trump taking arbitrary actions in swing states. It was not lost on Trump that his massive loss in 2020 was tied in part to the highest turnout rate since women got the right to vote. That turnout was still below many nations, so it is not impressive.
In other words, the voter turnout could rise quite a bit for a midterm if the Independents turn out and Democrats get off their couch. That outcome would be a major threat to Trump and his MAGA movement.
The 4 years of Trump 1.0 were enough for many to turn out after big wins in 2018 midterms. 4 years of Biden dimmed the enthusiasm in 2024. That expectation for a high turnout is likely to be back in the 2026 midterms, and Trump is panicking. Trump has to beat back that wave. It is that simple.
The legal challenges are already coming. The fact that Trump would go the route of issuing an executive order as his own personal Constitutional Amendment speaks volumes of his threat to Democracy and what might unfold. At some point, more global investors will question the role of the UST as the “risk-free asset.” Escalation on the level implied by his recent threats against Iran would take the US into a tier of crisis not seen since 1860.
Just a sampler of how votes can be challenged and derailed by the White House…
The bottom line is if Trump cannot ban voting by mail outright, his goal is to create as many administrative and institutional barriers as possible to deter people signing up. Then states can ban the voting by mail or face the challenge of hurdling the massive barriers that Trump seeks to build up. To the extent those mail-ins happen, Trump has failsafes in that the process is under his team’s supervision to sound the alarm. Trump can channel their actions toward key states and cities and suspend the election outcomes. Trump’s executive order piles on with more barriers led by appointees that he controls. It is the proverbial stacked deck.
Some excerpts from the executive order:
Team Trump dictates the plan to the states…(elections clause?)
Below we cut and paste some language from the executive order. It reeks of suppression via intentional burdensome institutional hurdles and tasks doomed to fail.
“The Secretary of Homeland Security, the Commissioner of SSA, and the Postmaster General shall coordinate with the Secretary of Commerce in effectuating all relevant aspects of the implementation of this order.”
“The Attorney General shall enforce compliance with the applicable Federal statutes referenced herein and provide guidance to election officials, including any instrumentalities thereof; contractors; individuals involved in the administration of Federal elections; or public or private entities engaged in the printing, production, shipment, or distribution of ballots.”
“The Secretary of Homeland Security shall, within 90 days of the date of this order, establish the infrastructure necessary to compile, maintain, and transmit the State Citizenship List described in section 2(a) of this order, and shall designate a point of contact within DHS to receive and process requests from individuals and State election officials regarding the relevant State Citizenship List. The Commissioner of SSA shall provide all necessary citizenship and identity data to the Secretary of Homeland Security in support of this requirement, consistent with applicable law, the Privacy Act, and all applicable use agreements.”
Our translation: Trump’s team rules the oversight of the process in case he needs to challenge later. The Feds will be de facto overseers of state election compliance. These sections alone underscore the nature of the people pulling the levers. This is a proverbial collection of lapdogs and includes some that are not exactly the brightest bulbs on the shelf. The sole virtue for Team Trump is unquestioned blind loyalty. That is what authoritarians need.
The weaponization of the post office or the excuse for the process failing?
For a sign of how convoluted this process is, we include a subset of the requirements below for state officials and the post office. The chain of mandated activity implies flawless execution by state and city officials, prudent and diligent focus by the voters to jump through all the hoops, and a post office system that will be locked in and very efficient. Those are impossible odds, and Team Trump knows it.
The bottom line is that your vote depends on civil servants, bureaucrats, and postal workers executing in record time with the validation of the votes still subject to White House appointees not throwing a penalty flag and staging a big excuse to challenge the outcomes.
In other words, once the turnout has been beaten down, Team Trump still gets a bite at the apple to challenge the outcome.
The civil service employees and administrative “cluster of circles” begs poor execution and failure subject to challenge as detailed earlier. We saw no reference to budgets and staffing support or a longer potential phase in period. They want to head off the 2026 elections now. One can suspect the swing states and blue cities would see their results challenged if SCOTUS lets this executive order fly. There is a target on their backs.
Some demands on the USPS (postal service):
Proposed provisions specifying that the USPS shall provide each State with a list of individuals (Mail-In and Absentee Participation List) who are enrolled with the USPS, pursuant to a process specified in the rulemaking directed by this subsection, for mail-in or absentee ballots provided by such State, along with unique ballot envelope identifiers, such as bar codes, for mail-in or absentee ballots provided to such individuals.
Proposed procedures enabling each State to routinely supplement and provide suggested modifications or amendments to the State’s Mail-In and Absentee Participation List in advance of any Federal election, consistent with applicable State law.
Proposed provisions specifying that all outbound ballot mail must be mailed in an envelope that:
(A) is marked as Official Election Mail, including through designated markings provided by USPS for this purpose, such as the Official Election Mail logo, as necessary and appropriate;
(B) is automation-compatible and bears a unique Intelligent Mail barcode, or successor USPS technology, that facilitates tracking and is consistent with the other requirements of this section; and
(C) has undergone a mail envelope design review by the USPS to ensure compliance with USPS mailing standards, including barcode placement.
(Proposed provisions specifying that, no fewer than 90 days prior to a Federal election, any State may choose to notify the USPS if it intends to allow for mail-in or absentee ballots to be transmitted by the USPS. As part of that notification, any notifying State should further indicate whether it intends to submit to the USPS, no fewer than 60 days before the election, a list of voters eligible to vote in a Federal election in such State to whom the State intends to provide a mail-in or absentee ballot to be transmitted via the USPS.
Our view: This is the hook where they ban mail-in voting in substance by using process obstacles and onerous admin demands even if not by outright policy that bans mail-in voting.
Proposed provisions specifying that the USPS shall not transmit mail-in or absentee ballots from any individual unless those individuals have been enrolled on a State-specific list…
Proposed provisions specifying that the USPS shall provide each State with a list of individuals (Mail-In and Absentee Participation List) who are enrolled with the USPS, pursuant to a process specified in the rulemaking directed by this subsection, for mail-in or absentee ballots provided by such State, along with unique ballot envelope identifiers, such as bar codes, for mail-in or absentee ballots provided to such individuals…
That authoritarian checklist needs voter suppression to succeed…
The usual playbook for authoritarians is not a big mystery. Two leading historians in this area who have published easy-to-read books include Ruth Ben-Ghiat (Strongmen) and Timothy Snyder (On Tyranny).
We look at some of the authoritarian checklist moves by Trump below just within the past year and a few months. Any single one is cause for alarm, but the collection is extraordinary and very dangerous for Democracy.
Those who have studied a lot of American geopolitical, domestic policy, and economic history cannot come up with anything close in prior American history to Trump’s totalitarian threat even in times of war (Wilson gave it a shot in killing free speech in WWI, and he was also a rabid racist. So he is the closest to Trump even if falling well short).
The view of the US among allies has been deteriorating rapidly and could get much worse in coming days if Trump pulls the trigger on massive escalation in the Mideast. At some point, the combination of massive deficits, economic uncertainty, and political instability will impact direct investment flowing into the US and could undermine offshore UST demand. The currency wildcard has already been on the table in 2025-2026. When the literal smoke clears in the Gulf, the petrodollar history of recycling into US investments could see material setbacks.
A QUICK LIST TO PONDER…
Constitutional amendments via executive order
We put this one first since it is recent and getting to be a habit with birthright citizenship and now state voting control in Trump’s crosshairs. The attempt to remove citizenship from those born in the US by immigrants does not hold up to a literal reading of the Constitution. Of course, some SCOTUS members are viewed as captive Trump votes, and some Supremes could change out of their originalist costumes when needed for their political “sponsor.” The arguments on the birthright topic is current news, so there is plenty to read on that topic.
The Team Trump argument on “birthright” was that it was “all about slavery.” That angle was decimated by the arguments that waves of immigrants (notably Irish) before and after the Civil War meant immigration factored into the 14th amendment (ratified in 1868). Birthright citizenship had also been tested since SCOTUS affirmed it applied to immigrants in 1898 (a Chinese immigrant) at a time when blacks were being disenfranchised by Jim Crow laws in the South. A lot of Irish fought for the Union on the winning side as did many black soldiers. We will see how the Trump-stacked court, who Trump now calls “stupid,” plays this one out.
Attack the media
Attacks on media have escalated with threats to broadcast licenses by Trump and the head of the FCC (one of the Project 2025 authors). The situation has been worsened by direct attacks from the Presidential pulpit on media companies and specific journalists by name in tandem with White house freeze-outs. The rechanneling of focus to friendly right-wing media is par for the course.
The real threat is close allies of Trump gaining control of media assets and shifting the operations toward a state media profile in coming years. That would be a rather Soviet ambition. Fox News hosts are now in key positions in the Cabinet and DOJ.
That threat of media ownership concentration used to be closely monitored and prioritized by the FCC. Now it is tacitly supported by the FCC by favoring friendly interests. One recent example is how the White House put its thumb on the M&A scale to undermine Netflix and favor Trump allies.
Attack education
The attack on higher education from the White House is about inflicting financial damage on schools and painting universities and colleges as elitist, which is the enemy of MAGA. Painting schools as antisemitic is one strategy even though antisemitic idiots can be found in every school, the GOP, among the Democrats, and most certainly in MAGA and the White House crowd. It is not grounds for widespread attacks and financially trashing schools.
The criticism was more than justified for inaction and feeble, slow response, but it is interesting that memories lapsed about the Charlottesville Tiki Torch antisemites (“Jews will not replace us”) and how Trump could only muster up a comment of “Fine people on both sides.” (Reminder: Gary Cohn almost resigned over the weak Trump response).
My own personal view more narrowly on the head of Harvard was, at the very least, she was incompetent and lacked leadership skills. However, her gender and race were perfect for a MAGA broadside. Either way, any head of Harvard that cannot win a debate in Congress with Elise Stefanik should go back to the beginning and enroll in community college.
The leadership weakness at some of these schools was used as a smokescreen and provided a readily available tactic to insist on the “MAGA-fication” of higher education by the White House using a new arsenal of threats. That is tough to do when facts and concepts are core to higher education. Facts tend to be inconsistent with MAGA. It is a safe assumption that Team Trump will not be investigating any schools in deep red states for racism or Islamophobia.
Attacking education is an old trick, but it harms free speech and generates even more division in the country. Division is a Trump priority to preserve his power base and cow academics (grants, etc.) and Congress. Such actions also financially undermine schools and thus financial aid for the deserving students who worked hard and earned a spot (not everyone has a daddy that can buy them a seat).
Attacks on universities also undermines critical investment in areas such as plant and equipment, technology, and housing. The financial penalties discourage infrastructure investment in the local economies. The economic multiplier effects are there. The fact that such local economies tend to be blue cities of course was the cherry for Trump.
In the end, you cannot cut through the irony and hypocrisy with a chainsaw given how Trump has prioritized Ivy League status in his own life (still need to see those transcripts!). The fact that so many GOP noisemakers have Ivy League degrees reminds us that DEI applies to home state locations also (i.e. it is easier to get accepted from Arkansas than NY, Connecticut and Massachusetts). The JAG career plans of some notable GOP Senators who were part of the applicant pool to places like Harvard get some “diversity” treatment also for “military” status. Few would dare to admit that or even bring it up.
Attacking top universities also undermines research budgets for those who cure disease and reward the world (that is economically the best deal in town for research economics and risk-reward). China will exploit those penalties in areas such as biotech, medicine, and pharma. China has now eclipsed the MIT area in Cambridge in biotech. High value industries were supposed to be protected by Trump (see Not Again: Why the United States Can’t Afford to Lose Its Biopharma Industry 2-29-24). Recruiting biotech by China got more press in media such as the Boston Globe. The fact that Trump is slapping high tariffs on pharma while undermining academic research is more than a little dumb. Punishment of non-supporters takes priority.
Inflate external enemies and vilify opposition parties…
In the 1920s and 1930s, Germany used the threat from Communists (the “Reichstag moment” reference cited in the 2020 election period by Milley). Chile and Argentina had the same boogeyman on the way to mass murder (backed by US interests). China had the US as the enemy after 1949. North Korea is obvious enough, but they will just kill you if you look cross-eyed. That is a simpler model. Russia has Ukraine and Poland and anyone who is embracing Democracy. There is always something to inflate and use.
Now it is Democrats (“radical left”) as part of the overly repeated Trump refrain. European nations that are not led by strongmen are the bad guys. Attacks on Europe now get more ammo since they did not take orders from Trump after the fact on Iran. Russia gets a pass by Trump for Ukraine. Instead, China is the enemy for Trump and Congressional talking heads. The theory is that Trump wants the EU to break up and he can strike deals with China and Russia as the “new Triumvirate.”
That creates hard choices for the center right (“Join the red hats or die)”. The center left seems homeless and downtrodden. The reality here is that self-identified independents are bigger than the GOP or the Democrats. Trump will face an uphill battle with independents in 2026 if he continues down the current path. That said, the Democrats always fall for the traps and need to do better work in reaching Independents, who will be the key swing factor.
Attack law firms
This move against the legal profession was headline material for some time as Trump set a goal of vengeance on lawyers. He was targeting and financially damaging major firms that were willing to represent legal opposition to Trump policies in the White House or in his personal behavior. It could not have been more brazen. Some law firms fought and won. Some did not fight and saw no cash value in having a spine.
Stack the Department of Justice and Courts
The DOJ has been self-evident in staffing intent (Pirro, Patel, Halligan, Habba, the rogues gallery, etc.). In a discipline where knowledge of the law is supposed to reign, it is now about personal attachments to Trump and the vindictive pursuit of enemies. We will not dwell on it. Turn on the TV. The DOJ had widespread purges and has become a halfway house for loyalists and mediocrity who do Trump’s bidding.
Attack judges
This is a carryover from Trump 1.0 with a gender, ethnic and a racial tinge often at play. Now Trump feels emboldened to attack SCOTUS as we saw recently. They have jobs for life, so that may not be the best strategy.
Purge the military
This has been a self-evident process from the start but has accelerated with internal opposition to the Iran strategy. The recent senior military turnover begs more than a few questions on motives and intent. Hegseth has accelerated stacking his team with “his kind” (white, evangelical, and obedient). The blurring of religion and military power is considered an outrage even among many Christian military experts and retired leaders. His overt racism has infected the promotion process.
ICE as freelance enforcers
The role of ICE has been a major headline controversy that we do not need to replay. It has flowed into the budget shutdown with little room for compromise on basic reforms. The masks and violence is easy enough to see on video. The Gestapo and Stasi did not wear masks. Neither do city cops or “Staties.” Even the Nazi Brownshirts did not wear masks. A good compromise might be to have ICE wear armbands like the Brownshirts. At least there is a precedent.
That simple mask requirement is a divide without a bridge, which says a lot. The doxxing theme applies to all. On the short list of very bad ideas would be showing up at the door of a roid-rage ICE employee who owns an assault rifle and multiple handguns. On the other hand, if an ICE enforcer is ashamed to show his face, maybe he should think that through.
The massive budgets allocated to ICE is a warning sign for those worries about Trump ambitions as ICE move from seizing and abusing immigrants (and beating on protestors) to manning airports. The logical question is “What will they be doing next?” Manning voting stations? Beating down 1st amendment protests?
The extraordinary outlays to build more de facto internment facilities is a daunting wildcard in how far a “wannabe dictator” (to quote the former head of the Joint Chiefs) will go to suspend elections and discourage free speech and demonstrations. The fact that ICE has a bigger annual budget than the Marines raises some concerns for obvious reasons.
Shadow immunity promises for ICE. Jan 6 Part Deux?
The blanket pardon for all the Jan 6 criminals and the signals (clear statements in the case of JD Vance) of immunity from prosecution or state level prosecution for ICE sends a less-than-subtle signal to “stand back and stand by” as the next election approaches. What will happen before the election between now and then and what will happen after is a matter of speculation. What has happened already in pardons and non-prosecution is a fact. That encourages more bad behavior as Trump’s ratings hit all-time lows.
To go where no man has gone…
This above checklist is unprecedented in US history for a President even if some pieces of it surfaced occasionally along the way. It is a Trump-only set of behavior patterns across the 250 years the nation will be celebrating in 2026.
SCOTUS and Congress are the only ways to head this off. It’s time for courage and integrity to make a comeback.